Finance and Credit

Abstracting and Indexing

Referativny Zhurnal VINITI RAS
LCCN Permalink
Google Scholar

Online available



Cyberleninka (24 month OA embargo)

Analyzing the dynamics of Russia's balance of payments

Vol. 25, Iss. 9, SEPTEMBER 2019

Received: 28 June 2019

Received in revised form: 22 July 2019

Accepted: 5 August 2019

Available online: 30 September 2019

Subject Heading: THEORY OF FINANCE

JEL Classification: F29, F30, F32, F37, F39

Pages: 2006–2021

Smirnov V.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University (ChuvSU), Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation

Mulendeeva A.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University (ChuvSU), Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation

Subject The article discusses the trends in Russia’s balance of payments.
Objectives The research determines trends in such dynamics and traces meaningful indicators of Russia’s balance of payments.
Methods The research is based on the systems approach, methods of statistical, cluster, neural network and nonparametric analyses.
Results Sanctions were found to have an adverse effect in the dynamics of Russia’s balance of payments as the growth rate of resource exports slows down and income per capital consequently decreases. A weaker influx of foreign direct investment and current balance of payments cause the volatility of the foreign exchange rate, which accommodates for the balance of the federal budget, thus requiring considerable international reserves. This stems from the monetary policy of the regulator pursuing to maintain the positive balance of payment and bigger reserves of assets. The analysis of Russia’s balance trends revealed its high volatility and tendency to official reserves due to significant changes in the volume of capital transactions. The demonetization of the Russian economy results from high negative growth rates of portfolio investment and capital accounts, steadily low growth rates of goods and services, focus on land and natural resource rent, personal transfers of non-resident households, active investment in foreign financial assets, etc.
Conclusions and Relevance What distinguishes the dynamics of Russia’s balance of payments is that changes in transactions with goods, services and income got synchronous, positive balance of reserve assets and their increase remain. Meaningful indicators include other investment (assets and liabilities, debt instruments, portfolio investment (assets), goods and services (loans, exports). The findings can be used as the rationale in forming, substantiating, adjusting and performing the federal budget of the Russian Federation.

Keywords: dynamics, official reserves, balance of payments, capital account, current account


  1. Glaz'ev S.Yu., Arkhipova V.V. [Sanctions and other crisis factors impact assessment on the Russian economy's state]. Rossiiskii ekonomicheskii zhurnal = Russian Economic Journal, 2018, no. 1, pp. 3–29. (In Russ.)
  2. Aganbegyan A.G. [How to overcome stagnation and recession]. Nauchnye trudy Vol'nogo ekonomicheskogo obshchestva Rossii = Scientific Works of the Free Economic Society of Russia, 2017, vol. 203, no. 1, pp. 58–74. (In Russ.)
  3. Melvin M., Norrbin S. The Balance of Payments. In: International Money and Finance (Ninth Edition). Academic Press, 2017, pp. 59–83. URL: Link
  4. Araujo R.A., Lima G.T. A Structural Economic Dynamics Approach to Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2007, vol. 31, iss. 5, pp. 755–774. URL: Link
  5. Canto V.A., Wiese A. Global Investing: The Balance of Payments. In: Economic Disturbances and Equilibrium in an Integrated Global Economy. Academic Press, 2018, pp. 221–238. URL: Link
  6. Blecker R.A., Ibarra C.A. Trade Liberalization and the Balance of Payments Constraint with Intermediate Imports: The Case of Mexico Revisited. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 2013, vol. 25, pp. 33–47. URL: Link
  7. Ibarra C.A. A Note on Intermediate Imports and the BPCG Model in Mexico. Economic Change and Restructuring, 2011, vol. 44, iss. 4, pp. 357–368. URL: Link
  8. Iavorschi M. The Influence of Foreign Direct Investments and the Current Account of the Balance of Payments on the Evolution of the Lei/Euro Exchange Rate in Romania. Procedia Economics and Finance, 2014, vol. 16, pp. 448–457. URL: Link00824-7
  9. Kumhof M., Yan I. Balance-of-Payments Anti-Crises. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2016, vol. 48, pp. 186–202. URL: Link
  10. Araujo R.A., Silva de Paiva M., Santos J.F.C. The Role of Intermediate Inputs in a Multisectoral Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Model: The Case of Mexico. Journal of Economic Structures – The Official Journal of the Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), 2019, vol. 8. URL: Link
  11. Mundell R. U.S. and China in the World Economy: The Balance of Payments and the Balance of Power. Journal of Policy Modeling, 2012, vol. 34, iss. 4, pp. 525–528. URL: Link
  12. Danilenko L.N. [Rents as category of modern economic science]. Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriya i praktika = Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, 2013, no. 8, pp. 20–31. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  13. Merkulova I.V. [Positions of foreign banks in the Russian banking system]. Finansovaya analitika: problemy i resheniya = Financial Analytics: Science and Experience, 2011, no. 36, pp. 55–60. (In Russ.)

View all articles of issue


ISSN 2311-8709 (Online)
ISSN 2071-4688 (Print)

Journal current issue

Vol. 26, Iss. 5
May 2020