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Digest Finance
 

A risk-based approach to evaluation of the budgetary security of the Russian Federation

Vol. 22, Iss. 1, MARCH 2017

PDF  Article PDF Version

Received: 19 October 2016

Received in revised form: 5 December 2016

Accepted: 16 January 2017

Available online: 15 March 2017

Subject Heading: RISK, ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION

JEL Classification: H26, H61, H68

Pages: 77-93

https://doi.org/10.24891/df.22.1.77

Yashina N.I. National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation
sitnicof@mail.ru

Pronchatova-Rubtsova N.N. National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation
pronat89@mail.ru

Kalenova Yu.S. National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation
inkomnia@yandex.ru

Importance Budgetary security has prevailing significance for sustainable development of the State. Budgetary indicators are as important as macroeconomic ones, since they reflect whether the State has sufficient financial resources to perform its domestic and foreign trade functions under uncertainty and risk.
Objectives The research comprehensively studies budgetary security through the risk-based approach. The research pursues timely identification of budgetary risks and ensuring their effective management so to improve the quality of the State finance management. We articulate priority areas for protecting the entire financial system of the nation as a whole and budgetary one in particular from destructive factors.
Methods The research relies upon general scientific methods of comparison, analysis, synthesis, deduction, graphic and table visualization of data that made our conclusions and judgements reasonable. We applied the statistical method to assess budgetary risks and subsequently interpreted the results.
Results The research determines the substance of budgetary security and assesses the federal budget risks within 2012–2014 in relation to comprehensive income on an annual basis and separate items for the period. We classified the performance of fiscal revenue plans by risk level and found revenue, which should be primarily controlled and subject to special policy for risk management.
Conclusions and Relevance We conclude that planning, forecasting of fiscal revenue, intergovernmental interaction support, improvement of the regulatory framework may become priorities for enhancing budgetary security through the risk-based approach. If the priorities are integrated into the budgeting process, it will make the budgetary policy an economic growth driver.

Keywords: budgetary security, budgetary risk, risk management, standard deviation, variance coefficient

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