The theory of macroeconomic cash gaps: Causes, cash gap balance as a bifurcation point between financial crisis and inflation, clarifying Keynesian equilibrium conditions and Friedman’s monetary policy limits
Subject. Macroeconomic cash gaps and their coverage mechanisms as systemic indicators of the national economy’s condition. Objectives. Theoretical substantiation and empirical verification of the hypothesis regarding the fundamental role of cash gaps in macroeconomic dynamics. Methods. General scientific methods were applied: analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction; special methods: economic?mathematical modelling, system?functional analysis. Data processing was carried out using the Python language and the Yandex DataLens platform. The scipy, pandas, and matplotlib.pyplot libraries were employed. Additionally, the A/B testing method was used, applying the Mann–Whitney U test. Results. The permanent nature of macroeconomic cash gap formation was theoretically substantiated and empirically confirmed. A system of formulaic dependencies was developed. An extension of J.M. Keynes’s classical condition for general market equilibrium is proposed by incorporating a requirement for financial equilibrium, which presupposes a positive or zero balance of cash gap coverage. The relationship between the dynamics of the money supply and the sustainability of economic development was clarified. The existence of the debt channel of inflation was verified. Conclusions and Relevance. Maintaining macroeconomic equilibrium requires external financing of cash gaps, primarily through credit emission. The cash gap balance serves as an integral indicator of macroeconomic dynamics. A transition to active management of the cash gap balance is promising, achieved through a combination of targeted monetary emission and fiscal sterilization of excess liquidity. The results can be applied in the development and implementation of monetary policy, in determining the parameters of public debt and the volumes of targeted monetary emission, and in improving the methodology of financial planning and risk management.
Keynes J.M. Obshchaya teoriya zanyatosti, protsenta i deneg [The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money]. Moscow, AST Publ., 2024, 544 p.
Mankiw N.G. Makroekonomika [Macroeconomics]. St. Petersburg, Piter Publ., 2013, 560 p.
Harrod R.F. K teorii ekonomicheskoi dinamiki [Towards a dynamic economics. Some recent developments of economic theory and their application to policy]. Moscow, Direkt-Media Publ., 2007, 175 p.
Friedman M. Kapitalizm i svoboda [Capitalism and Freedom]. Moscow, Bombora Publ., 2020, 304 p.
Perroux F. L'Économie du XXe siècle. Presses universitaires de France, 1969, 765 p.
Lucas R.E. Studies in business-cycle theory. Cambridge, The MIT Press, 1981.
Klavdienko V.P. [Digitalization of economy and the distribution of primary income between labor and capital]. Innovatsii, 2020, no. 5, pp. 20–26. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.26310/2071-3010.2020.259.5.004
Vorontsov K.V., Iglovikov V.I., Strizhov V.V. et al. [Roundtable: Challenges in repeatable experiments and reproducible research in data science]. Trudy MFTI, 2021, vol. 13, no. 2, pp. 100–108. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.53815/20726759_2021_13_2_100
Marx K. Kritika politicheskoi ekonomii [Capital. A critique of political economy]. Moscow, Eksmo Publ., 2021, 1200 p.
Cobb C.W., Douglas P.H. A Theory of Production. The American Economic Review, 1928, vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 139–165.
