Subject. Structural transformation of Russia’s debt market. Objectives. To identify the structural patterns in the dynamics of the Russian Federation’s debt market. Methodology. The study employs approximation techniques, neural network and cluster analysis, and scenario?based forecasting. Results. An outpacing growth of the debt market has been identified, particularly in the segments of lending to non?financial organizations, debt securities, and household loans. Neural network analysis has confirmed the system?forming role of the debt securities market. Cluster analysis has revealed similar dynamics in securitization operations for mortgage and consumer loans, as well as a weak correlation between loans and debt securities issued by non?financial organizations. A structural shift in corporate debt has been detected, with a growing share of loans featuring floating interest rates. Forecasts have been developed, and the opportunities and risks associated with the structural transformation of Russia’s debt market have been systematized. The study demonstrates that the profound structural transformation of Russia’s debt market is characterized by both growth and diversification of instruments, along with an increasing role of non?bank financing. Coordinated actions by all market participants are required to strengthen oversight of asset quality, stimulate the development of the corporate bond market, and implement mechanisms for managing interest rate risks. Conclusions. The research findings are intended for regulators, financial institutions, and the academic community to help develop measures aimed at reducing the structural risks of Russia’s debt market.
Fisher I. The Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions. Econometrica, 1933, vol. 1, no. 4, pp. 337–357. DOI: 10.2307/1907327
Wolfson M.H. Financial Crises: Understanding the Postwar U.S. Experience. Sharpe, 1986, 228 p.
Schumpeter J.A. The Theory of Economic Development: An Inquiry into Profits, Capital, Credit, Interest, and the Business Cycle. Harvard University Press, 1934, 255 p.
Goldsmith R.W. Financial Structure and Development. Yale University Press, 1969, 561 p.
Minsky H.P. The Financial Instability Hypothesis. Jerome Levy Economics Institute of Bard College Working Paper, 1992, no. 74.
Stiglitz J.E., Weiss A. Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information. The American Economic Review, 1981, vol. 71, no. 3, pp. 393–410.
Markowitz H. Portfolio Selection. The Journal of Finance, 1952, vol. 7, iss. 1, pp. 77–91. DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1952.tb01525.x
Sharpe W.F. Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk. The Journal of Finance, 1964, vol. 19, iss. 3, pp. 425–442. URL: Link. DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1964.tb02865.x
Akerlof G.A. The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1970, vol. 84, no. 3, pp. 488–500. DOI: 10.2307/1879431
Shiller R.J. Irrational Exuberance. Princeton University Press, 2000, 296 p.
Modigliani F., Miller M.H. The Cost of Capital, Corporation Finance and the Theory of Investment. The American Economic Review, 1958, vol. 48, no. 3, pp. 261–297.
Keynes J.M. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. Palgrave Macmillan, 1936, 472 p.
Bernanke B.S. Non-monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression. The American Economic Review, 1983, vol. 73, no. 3, pp. 257–276.
Bernanke B.S. Bankruptcy, Liquidity, and Recession. The American Economic Review, 1981, vol. 71, no. 2, pp. 155–159.
Efimova O.V., Volkov M.A., Golubkov M.D. et al. [Empirical research of Russian enterprises' debt burden]. Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriia i praktika, 2022, vol. 21, no. 9, pp. 1657–1686. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.24891/ea.21.9.1657 EDN: NMTAXL
Shvandar D.V. [Factors of growing accounts payable of the Russian entrepreneurs during economic uncertainty]. Finansovaia analitika: problemy i resheniia, 2016, no. 35, pp. 41–53. (In Russ.) EDN: WMSNBN
Efimova O.V., Volkov M.A., Golubkov M.D. et al. [Empirical research of Russian enterprises' debt burden]. Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriya i praktika, 2022, vol. 21, no. 9, pp. 1657–1686. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.24891/ea.21.9.1657 EDN: NMTAXL
Shvandar D.V. [Factors of growing accounts payable of the Russian entrepreneurs during economic uncertainty]. Finansovaya analitika: problemy i resheniya, 2016, no. 35, pp. 41–53. (In Russ.) EDN: WMSNBN
