Subject. The transformation of Russia’s budget policy under the impact of external economic shocks, sanctions pressure, and structural shifts in foreign trade. Objectives. The study seeks to identify the mechanisms by which Russia’s budget policy adapts to the new conditions, determine the factors influencing the reallocation of revenue and spending priorities, and analyze the fiscal risks arising from changes in the export structure, the mobilization?driven shift in spending, and the growth of external economic obligations. Methods. The research applies a set of methods, including structural and retrospective analysis, systemic approach techniques, and comparative analysis. It also draws on analytical methods, economic interpretation, and synthesis. Results. The findings show that in 2022–2025, the Russian budget system underwent an adaptation phase in response to external constraints. These constraints manifested as a decline in the share of oil and gas revenues and a sharp rise in domestic taxes, particularly the value?added tax (VAT). The structure of public spending has shifted towards administrative and defense objectives, while total investment in human capital remains below one?quarter of overall allocations. The study further demonstrates that the system of external economic obligations generates a negative balance, which increases the burden on the fiscal system and necessitates stricter prioritization of spending policies. Conclusions. Russia’s budget policy is shaped at the intersection of two opposing vectors: fiscal consolidation and mobilization?driven spending expansion. This situation calls for a balance between domestic economic priorities and foreign policy objectives. Under conditions of declining export revenues, rising geopolitical tensions, and growing external economic obligations, the stability of the budget system is determined by the effectiveness of tax modernization, the economy’s ability to adapt to a decline in commodity rents, and the development of a more rational architecture of international financial relations.
Keywords: Russia, public finance, federal budget, expenditures, foreign economic obligations
References:
Spartak A.N., Cheklina T.N. [Russia’s trade and economic cooperation with Europe before and after the start of the special military operation]. Rossiiskii vneshneekonomicheskii vestnik, 2023, no. 2, pp. 8–46. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.24412/2072-8042-2023-2-8-46 EDN: IFNXRE
Altukhov A.O., Butenko N.A., Gavrilova Yu.V. et al. [Russia’s foreign trade under sanctions]. Vneshnyaya torgovlya Rossii v usloviyakh sanktsii, Moscow, Infra‑M Publ., 2025, 238 p. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.12737/2157182 ISBN: 978-5-16-020074-3 EDN: WNCVAK
Peratinskaya D.A. [Analysis of the impact of global market conditions on the pricing of Russian oil and gas export products]. Ekonomika i predprinimatel’stvo, 2025, no. 10, pp. 435–440. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.34925/EIP.2025.183.10.069 EDN: WXGENX
Kolesnikova E.N. [Analysis of the structure and dynamics of value added tax collection in 2024]. Ekonomika i biznes: teoriya i praktika, 2025, no. 2‑2, pp. 127–130. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.24412/2411-0450-2025-2-2-127-130 EDN: BUFAAI
Pronina L.I. [The tax reform of 2025 is a factor in increasing federal budget revenues and increasing Russia’s economic potential]. Ekonomika i upravlenie: problemy, resheniya, 2025, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 179–194. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.36871/ek.up.p.r.2025.01.01.019 EDN: PFBIJF
Zotikov N.Z. [Value added tax under the simplified taxation system: Consequences for business and budget]. Vestnik universiteta, 2025, no. 1, pp. 201–211. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.26425/1816-4277-2025-1-201-211 EDN: RWBHPC
Mukhorchyova E.E. [Dependence of the yield of government bonds of the Russian Federation on the key rate of the Bank of Russia]. Biznes i obshchestvo, 2024, no. 1. (In Russ.) EDN: RTRUYF
Druzhinin N.L., Popova M.I., Maryanenko V.P. [Increased key rate as a factor in investment and financial decisions]. Vestnik Altaiskoi akademii ekonomiki i prava, 2024, no. 4‑3, pp. 401–407. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.17513/vaael.3438 EDN: HAXPQW
Sidorova E.A. [Budget policy as a reflection of social and economic problems in nowadays Russia]. Rossiya i sovremennyi mir, 2011, no. 3, pp. 85–98. (In Russ.) EDN: OEYHWN
Kraynova A.I., Popova N.I. [Analysis of the distribution of federal budget expenditures]. Uchet, analiz i audit: problemy teorii i praktiki, 2024, no. 32, pp. 76–79. (In Russ.) EDN: YMHOXY
Naryshkin A.A. [Alternative economic relations under sanctions]. Sovremennaya Evropa, 2023, no. 5, pp. 96–104. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.31857/S020170832305008X EDN: YACEFB
Zorina M.A., Davidyan Yu.I. [Impact of social budget expenditures for the welfare of the population]. Vestnik Altaiskoi akademii ekonomiki i prava, 2024, no. 12‑3, pp. 415–422. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.17513/vaael.3936 EDN: ENXKUB
Sinyavskiy N.G., Avdiyskiy V.I. [Analysis of military expenditures: Global and regional aspects]. Vestnik Evraziyskoi nauki, 2024, vol. 16, no. 4. (In Russ.) EDN: UYLBXV
Berdyev M.V. [The world before and after: The greater Eurasian partnership as a catalyst for epochal change]. Evraziiskii dialog, 2024, no. 2, pp. 4–9. (In Russ.) EDN: UTJNTD
Zel’skiy A.G., Rozhkov R.S., Vasyukova Yu.S., Moshkin A.S. [Macroeconomic consequences of defense appropriations: Optimization of the ratio of strategic security and sustainable development of the state]. Vestnik Evraziyskoi nauki, 2025, vol. 17, no. S4. (In Russ.) EDN: JIQWBI
Lozhechko A.S. [Analysis of the practice of providing budget loans in the Russian Federation]. Finansovaya zhizn’, 2023, no. 4, pp. 70–74. (In Russ.) EDN: BWPJNY
