Subject. Structural changes in Russia’s domestic capital market under the impact of sanctions restrictions and financial autarky. Objectives. The study seeks to analyze how external restrictions have stimulated the development of the domestic market for debt securities and to determine the role of the state as a key borrower under sanctions. Methods. The research applies special economic?mathematical methods of statistical and visual data analysis, trend model construction, and approximation coefficient assessment. It also draws on comparative analysis techniques and exponential trend modelling. Results. The paper presents an analysis of the dynamics of key macroeconomic and financial indicators, including the current account balance, the size of the federal loan bond market, corporate bond volumes, and banking credit volumes. A structural shift from external to domestic financing has been identified: the positive current account balance created a liquidity surplus, which was redirected to the domestic market. It has been revealed that the federal loan bond market demonstrated stable fivefold growth, confirming the hypothesis of the state acting as an anchor borrower. At the same time, the volume of corporate bonds grew commensurately, becoming the main driver of debt financing for businesses. Corporate credit growth accelerated after 2023, while the retail credit market went through a cycle from boom to stagnation due to regulatory measures. Russia’s capital market has adapted to the conditions of financial autarky through a large?scale reorientation towards domestic funding sources. The banking sector played a key role in transforming excess liquidity into domestic public debt and loans to the economy. Conclusions. The analysis carried out has significant practical implications, and its findings can be used by key economic agents to make informed decisions in the areas of policy?making, financial management, and investment activities.
Keywords: federal loan bonds, capital market, structural shift, current account, financial autarky
References:
Gurvich E., Prilepskiy I. The impact of financial sanctions on the Russian economy. Russian Journal of Economics, 2015, vol. 1, iss. 4, pp. 359–385. DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2016.02.002 EDN: WSWUTD
Strizhakova E.N., Strizhakov D.V. [New challenges for the Russian Federation economy and ways to overcome them in the face of sanctions]. Natsional’nye interesy: prioritety i bezopasnost’, 2023, vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 4–21. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.24891/ni.19.1.4 EDN: EHSTGH
Abramov A.E., Radygin A.D., Chernova M.I. [Russian stock market: trends, challenges and solutions. Academic view]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 2021, no. 11, pp. 5–32. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2021-11-5-32 EDN: YVWWFS
Abramov A.E. Rossiyskiy finansovyy rynok: faktory razvitiya i bar’ery rosta [Russian financial market: Development factors and growth barriers]. Moscow, Fond Institut ekonomicheskoy politiki im. E.T. Gaidara Publ., 2017, 202 p. (In Russ.) EDN: ZFBJWH
Zharkova Yu.S., Melekhova M.A., Redkokashina V.S. [State regulation of the Russian securities market]. Akademicheskaya publitsistika, 2019, no. 4, pp. 91–95. (In Russ.) EDN: RFVWJA
Ataeva S.S. [The role and functions of securities]. Teoriya i praktika sovremennoi nauki, 2022, no. 2, pp. 177–180. (In Russ.) EDN: TUUZLV
Karpov K.A. [The genesis of financial and legal regulation of the Russian securities market]. Zhurnal yuridicheskikh issledovanii, 2022, vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 60–70. (In Russ.) EDN: EFQNKQ
Gospodarchuk G.G., Zeleneva E.S. [Effectiveness of macroprudential policy: Problems of measurement and evaluation]. Finansy: teoriya i praktika, 2023, vol. 27, no. 1, pp. 32–41. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671-2023-27-1-32-41 EDN: PUHTHX
Narkevich S., Chembuatova M., Trunin P. Assessment of the Influence of the Macroprudential Policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on Economic Development. SSRN Electronic Journal, 2021, 54 p. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3860130
Ipat’ev I.R. [Optimal macroprudential regulation tools]. Daidzhest-finansy, 2024, vol. 29, no. 1, pp. 72–93. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.24891/fc.26.4.774 EDN: OYIXJC
Dobrynskaya V., Turkisch E. Economic diversification and Dutch disease in Russia. Post‑Communist Economies, 2010, vol. 22, iss. 3, pp. 283–302. DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2010.498680 EDN: MXEIXT
Aslam A., Newaz M.K. Geopolitical risk and bond market dynamics: Assessing the impact of threats and realized events. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 2025, vol. 103, 102032. DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.102032 EDN: SVYTSK
Afonso A., Alves J., Monteiro S. Beyond borders: Assessing the influence of Geopolitical tensions on sovereign risk dynamics. European Journal of Political Economy, 2024, vol. 83, 102550. DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102550 EDN: XAVHQI
Caldara D., Iacoviello M. Measuring Geopolitical Risk. American Economic Review, 2022, vol. 112, no. 4, pp. 1194–1225. DOI: 10.1257/aer.20191823 EDN: LHUUQL
Naidenova I., Novikova A. The Reaction of Russian Public Companies’ Stock Prices to Sanctions Against Russia. Journal of Corporate Finance Research, 2018, vol. 12, no. 3, pp. 27–38. DOI: 10.17323/j.jcfr.2073-0438.12.3.2018.27-38 EDN: OUCNUJ
Fedorova E.A., Musienko S.O., Afanas’ev D.O. [Impact of the Russian stock market on economic growth]. Finansy: teoriya i praktika, 2020, vol. 24, no. 3, pp. 161–173. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671-2020-24-3-161-173 EDN: TDAANX
