Subject. Financial stability and external economic resilience of Russia. Objectives. To assess the financial stability and external economic resilience of Russia. Methods. General scientific and special economic-mathematical methods were applied. Results. An exponential growth in debt of key sectors of the Russian economy has been identified. It has been determined that the largest volume of debt is concentrated in the non-financial sector, while debt of other financial organizations (excluding credit institutions) is growing at the highest rate. This indicates a process of financialization. Household debt is also rising, increasing households’ vulnerability to economic shocks. It has been found that the Bank of Russia’s operations involving short-term loans to banks secured by securities demonstrate high volatility and correlate with periods of stress in the banking sector. This indicates the effectiveness of the regulator’s measures to curb liquidity crises. It has been shown that the trade balance, current account balance and capital account balance exhibit high volatility and dependence on global commodity price trends. A shift has been recorded from a model integrated into the global economy to a model of managed and limited stability based on commodity exports and strict capital controls. In the long term, high risks persist due to limited access to capital and the formation of a domestic debt bubble. Conclusions. The study can be used by government authorities to reduce financial instability, forecast economic crises, make balanced decisions to ensure external economic resilience, and also for further scientific research.
Keywords: debt, capital, liquidity, risk, trade
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