Subject. Transformation of the modern system of international economic relations, characterized by the transition from a unipolar model to a polycentric architecture. Objectives. Identifying fundamental patterns and quantitatively assessing shifts in the balance of economic power based on the analysis of GDP dynamics and structure by purchasing power parity (PPP), as well as determining the role of integration associations and Global South countries in shaping the new world order. Methods. A comparative analysis of data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank for the period 1995–2030 was applied. The main method is a quantitative assessment of the share of countries and supranational unions in global GDP by PPP. The methodology includes a critical approach. Results. It was found that the share of developing countries in the world's GDP by PPP exceeded the share of developed countries (59.27% versus 39.36%). China's leadership (19.68%) and significant growth of India (8.53%) have been identified, as well as the strengthening of ASEAN's role. It has been shown that the economies of the USA, EU, and Japan are exhibiting a relative decline in their shares. A high degree of concentration of economic potential within the Global South around a small group of countries has been observed. Conclusions. The modern architecture of the global economy is becoming polycentric, with dominant centers of influence in the form of China, the USA, and the EU. The steady growth of India and ASEAN creates the conditions for further complication of the global balance of power. It has been established that the Global South cannot be considered a full-fledged pole of economic influence due to the significant differences in levels of economic development among the countries in the group.
Keywords: world economic order, polycentricity, economic impact center, economic integration, integration associations
References:
Bulatov A.S. [Russia’s participation in economic globalization: New reversal of tendencies]. Mezhdunarodnaya torgovlya i torgovaya politika, 2023, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 112–135. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.21686/2410-7395-2023-1-112-135 EDN: JGHSOI
Kortunov A.V. [Multipolarity and multilateralism as the two dimensions of the future world order]. Politicheskaya nauka, 2024, no. 2, pp. 80–101. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.31249/poln/2024.02.04 EDN: ARFCIX
Baranovskii V.G., Kuvaldin V.B. [Global conflict: An attribute of a changing world order or an outdated tool for its transformation?]. Politicheskie issledovaniya, 2023, no. 6, pp. 8–20. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2023.06.02 EDN: BLAKCJ
Torkunov A.V. [Russia and political order in a changing world: Values, institutions, prospects]. Politicheskie issledovaniya, 2022, no. 5, pp. 7–22. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2022.05.02 EDN: CYRKPH
Degterev D.A. [Multipolarity or “new bipolarity”?]. RSMD, 2020. (In Russ.) EDN: HKJBCM
Afontsev S.A. [Economic dimensions of the multipolar world: What do GDP figures really tell]. Politicheskaya nauka, 2024, no. 2, pp. 151–170. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.31249/poln/2024.02.07 EDN: TLUHQU
Kuznetsov A.V. [Acceleration of Russia’s economic turn to the global south in 2022]. Nauchnye trudy Vol’nogo ekonomicheskogo obshchestva Rossii, 2023, vol. 241, no. 3, pp. 158–164. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.38197/2072-2060-2023-241-3-158-164 EDN: GJRSAW
