Dmitrii A. MUKHINMoscow State Institute of International Relations (University) of Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russian Federation (MGIMO University), Moscow, Russian Federation mukhin.dmi@gmail.com ORCID id: not available
Subject. The article discusses dividend payments of Russian public companies at the present stage. Objectives. The purpose of the study is to identify the influence of financial indicators (free cash flow, capital expenditures, net income, operating profit, EBITDA) on the decision of Russian public companies to pay dividends and on the amount of these payments. Methods. The study employs econometric methods of analysis, including logistic regression to model the probability of dividend payments, and ordinary linear regression obtained by applying the least squares method, to analyze the impact of various factors on the size of dividend payments. Results. The performed analysis showed a statistically significant positive impact of lagged financial indicators on the probability of dividend payments. Similar results were obtained for the effect of these indicators on the size of dividends, while the linear regression models demonstrated significant explanatory power. Conclusions. The findings confirm that the financial performance of Russian companies in the previous period is an important determinant of their dividend policy. Higher values of operating profit, free cash flow, EBITDA, and net profit in the past increase both the probability of dividend payments and their size in the current period. The findings may be useful for investors and analysts to forecast dividend payments and assess the investment attractiveness of Russian companies. The identified positive impact of lagged capital expenditures requires further consideration.
Keywords: dividend, dividend policy, financial indicator, lagged variables, Russian company
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