Importance The article considers quantitative characteristics of assessing the taxable capacity of the industrial region. In 2014 - early 2015, a number of exogenous factors, like financial markets volatility, increasing debt, etc., influenced the economic situation of the region. These conditions require a timely and qualitatively increase in the volume of realized taxable capacity for regional authorities to fulfill the entrusted social commitments. Objectives The study aims to estimate the key quantitative characteristics of the industrial region's taxable capacity, to reveal factors and prospects for its increase. Methods The methodology includes a systems analysis, comparison, generalization, formalization, and regression modeling. Results We provide the rationale for applying the direct count method for retrospective and prediction estimate of the region's taxable capacity. The article presents quantitative characteristics of the industrial region's taxable capacity over 2011-2014 and a scenario forecast of its behavior for 2015. We show opportunities to increase the taxable capacity under the effective financial legislation and the existing paradigm of economic development. Conclusions and Relevance Under the current financial legislation, it is possible to increase the taxable capacity through structural changes, developing the sphere of industrial production, and institutional reforms in the system of interrelations of government authorities and business communities.
Sovershenstvovanie mezhbyudzhetnykh otnoshenii v Rossii [Improving the inter-budget relations in Russia]. Moscow, IET Publ., 2000, 409 p.
Tax Capacity of the Fifty States: Methodology and Estimates. 1982. Available at: Link.
Barro S. Macroeconomic versus RTS Measures of Fiscal Capacity: Theoretical Foundations and Implications for Canada. Available at: Link.
Measuring State Fiscal Capacity: Alternative Methods and Their Uses. Available at: Link.
Sidorova N.I. Nalogovyi potentsial v reshenii problem bednosti [Taxable capacity in solving the poverty-related problems]. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya = Sociological Studies, 2002, no. 10, pp. 72–79.
Kolomiets A.L. Analiz kontseptual'nykh podkhodov i metodov otsenki nalogovogo potentsiala regionov [An analysis of conceptual approaches and methods to estimate the taxable capacity of regions]. Nalogovyi vestnik = Tax Bulletin, 2000, no. 2. Available at: Link. (In Russ.)
Sobarzo H. Tax Effort and Tax Potential of State Governments in Mexico: A Representative Tax System. Available at: Link.
Davoodi H., Grigorian D. Tax Potential vs. Tax Effort: A Cross-Country Analysis of Armenia’s Stubbornly Low Tax Collection. Available at: Link.
Minh Le T., Moreno-Dodson B., Bayraktar N. Tax Capacity and Tax Effort: Extended Cross-Country Analysis from 1994 to 2009. Available at: Link.
Belkin D. Taxing Metropolis: Tax Effort and Tax Capacity in Large U.S. Cities. Available at: Link.
Chernick H. Fiscal Capacity in New York: The City versus the Region. National Tax Journal, 1998, vol. 51, no. 3, pp. 531–540. Available at: Link.
Yilmaz Y., Hoo S., Nagowski M., Rueben K., Tannenwald R. Measuring Fiscal Disparities across the U.S. States: A Representative Revenue System. Representative Expenditure System Approach, Fiscal Year 2002. Available at: Link.
Dornfest A.S. Comparative Tax Potential: Tax Burden in Idaho and the United States. Fiscal Year 2012. Available at: Link.
Chervin S. Fiscal Effort, Fiscal Capacity, and Fiscal Need: Separate Concepts, Separate Problems. Available at: Link.
Tax Capacity of the States. Washington D.C., Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations, 1986. Available at: Link.
Lugovoi O., Sinel'nikov-Murylev S., Trunin I., Kadochnikov P. Otsenka nalogovogo potentsiala i raskhodnykh potrebnostei sub"ektov Rossiiskoi Federatsii [Assessing the tax potential and consumption needs of subjects of the Russian Federation]. Moscow, IET Publ., 2001, 205 p.
Kusraeva D.E. Otsenka nalogovogo potentsiala regiona [Estimating the tax potential of the region]. Mezhdunarodnyi nauchno-issledovatel'skii zhurnal = International Research Journal, 2012. Available at: Link. (In Russ.)
Botkin O.I., Miroshkin N.P. Metodologiya byudzhetirovaniya munitsipal'nogo obrazovaniya [Methodology of municipality budgeting]. Yekaterinburg, Izhevsk, Ural Branch of RAS Publ., 2005, 248 p.
Baltina A.M. Byudzhetnoe planirovanie kak uslovie sbalansirovannosti finansov gosudarstva [Budgeting as a condition of balanced public finance]. Vestnik OGU = Vestnik of Orenburg State University,2001, no. 3, pp. 64–70. Available at: Link. (In Russ.)
Gorskii I.V. Nalogovyi potentsial v mekhanizme mezhbyudzhetnykh otnoshenii [Tax potential in the mechanism of intergovernmental relations]. Finansy = Finance, 1999, no. 6, pp. 28–30.
Ivanov V.V. Nalogovyi potentsial regiona kak fundament byudzhetnoi sistemy strany [Tax potential of the region as the foundation of the national budgetary system]. Problemy sovremennoi ekonomiki = Problems of Modern Economics, 2014, no. 2, pp. 204–207.
