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Russian Ruble exchange rate and the monetary policy: some results of 2014-2015

Vol. 21, Iss. 39, OCTOBER 2015

PDF  Article PDF Version

Received: 1 June 2015

Accepted: 16 June 2015

Available online: 28 October 2015

Subject Heading: MONETARY SYSTEM

JEL Classification: 

Pages: 14-22

Kuz'min A.Yu. Financial University under Government of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation
a_kuzmin@rambler.ru

Importance The foreign exchange rate is a focal point of currency and monetary policies. It is reasonable to study the mid-term equilibrium trends in the Ruble rate and its critical and fundamental determinants by examining cash flows in Russia's balance of payments.
     Methods As part of my conceptual approach to modeling the international flows equilibrium exchange rate (IFEER), I examine how the Ruble exchange rate fluctuates in the presented system of fundamental endogenous and exogenous factors in the mid-run. I propose a method for configuring inner parameters of the model so to regulate the exchange rate at the macroeconomic level. For configuring purposes, I used the least square method implying standards of values under study.
     Results Based on the modeling results, I analyzed trends in the Ruble nominal exchange rate within 2013-2015 and determined the main reason for a drop in the US/RUB exchange rate within the period from December 2013 through February 2015. In the said period, a growth in consumer prices also influenced the result. I also should mention that a short-term drop in the real GDP had a very low effect.
     Conclusions and Relevance The research presents scientific novelty as it devises models, algorithms, and recommendations, which may prove useful to address macroeconomic regulation issues.

Keywords: Ruble exchange rate, macroeconomic factors, econometric modeling, macroeconomic policy, inflation targeting

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