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Finance and Credit
 

Combinatorial analysis of the budget system's risks

Vol. 21, Iss. 22, JUNE 2015

PDF  Article PDF Version

Available online: 14 June 2015

Subject Heading: FISCAL SYSTEM

JEL Classification: 

Pages: 28-39

Gamukin V.V. Tyumen State University, Tyumen, Russian Federation
valgam@mail.ru

Subject The current fiscal situation in Russia develops under the influence of the budgetary risks system. The domestic scientific literature has various classifications of budgetary risks. The traditional set of budgetary risks includes risks associated with regularity of revenues and payments, budget revenues and expenses structure, budget imbalance, and dependence on external sources. However, there are other types of budgetary risks, like environment risks, risk of event, etc.
     Objectives The study aims to consider the opportunity of creating three blocks of relations, i.e. relations of the system's risks with environment risks block, the system's risks with system's risks block, and the system's risks with risks of event block.
     Methods For the combinatorial analysis purpose, I have chosen one aspect, namely, the influence of the risks of the system on each other and on other risks. Graphically, it may be presented in the form of an incidence matrix, which is used in the theory of graphs.
     Results The study results in creating a network of risks, which analysis, in each particular case, enables to identify key risks, to measure the extent of their relations, and to develop actions for mitigating the resulting risk through decomposition of certain risks of environment, system and event.
     Conclusions and Relevance The considered relations may further create consecutive chains of relations.

Keywords: budgetary risk, risk combinations, incidence matrix

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