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Finance and Credit
 

The phenomenon of crisis as presented in economic science: an anticipated pattern or unpredictable shock?

Vol. 21, Iss. 21, JUNE 2015

PDF  Article PDF Version

Available online: 10 June 2015

Subject Heading: THEORY OF FINANCE

JEL Classification: 

Pages: 27-36

L'vova N.A. Saint Petersburg State University, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
lvova_n.a@mail.ru

Semenovich N.S. Saint Petersburg State University, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
nsemenovich07@yandex.ru

Importance The article deals with the crisis phenomenon in socio-economic systems. Crises, being an integral feature of economic relations, attract close attention of economists of all time. However, the economic theory of crisis continues to be incomplete. The perception of a crisis is different, as the variety of implications range from a logically repeated phase of the economic cycle to extraordinary and unpredictable shock.
     Objectives The aim of our study is to answer the question about the crisis nature from the economic science perspective.
     Methods We review the evolution of crisis concepts presented in the works on macroeconomics. The article analyzes numerous crisis and economic cycle theories, from the classics of political economy to the followers of financial instability and real business cycle concepts. We study the concept of organizational life cycle and crisis theories having, in our view, cross-disciplinary significance.
     Results According to our findings, there are two fundamentally different approaches in the interpretation of a crisis, i.e. static (a crisis as a state of things) and dynamic (a crisis as a process). In economics, the dynamic approach prevails, and the crisis is usually viewed in conjunction with the cycle. However, as the study shows, the theory of crisis failed to fully transform into the economic cycle theory. Alternative theories are developing rapidly, and more attention is being increasingly focused on the uncertainty factor.
     Conclusions and Relevance The crisis concept is multifaceted. It is impossible to give an explicit answer to the question about its nature. An extremely important and promising area of further research is to shape the theory of economic crisis that would combine the scientific understanding of the mechanism and perception of crisis phenomena at all levels of the economy.

Keywords: crisis, macroeconomic crisis, organization, theory, economic cycle, life cycle, real business cycle, financial instability, black swan theory

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