Korosteleva T.S.Samara State Aerospace University named after academician S.P. Korolev (National Research University), Samara, Russian Federation korosteleva75@mail.ru
Importance The article points out that the mortgage crisis in the United States has been recognized as one of the triggers of the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. Russia also was among the countries affected by the crisis wave. The analysis of factors provoking the crisis, and the post-crisis development of the Russian economy, convinces that in the modern conditions the residential mortgage lending (RML) system, by means of the entire set of its tools, can influence the economic system development as a whole, and in some cases even to act as the catalyst of the change of business cycles phases. That is why the development of the RML system in the context of an economic cycle is particularly relevant. Objectives The study aims to investigate the features of the macroeconomic dynamics of the Russian RML system on the phases of the economic cycle. Methods I have examined the specifics of the macroeconomic dynamics of the Russian RML system on the economic cycle phases. The tasks included: substantiation of the need to account for and expand of the group of financial sector's indicators enabling to predict a crisis using the economic activity of the RML system; development of effective mechanisms of anti-recessionary regulation to prevent crisis and neutralize its impact on the economy as a whole. The methods of statistical analysis served as methodological tools of the research. The study focuses on the functioning of the residential mortgage lending system in the context of the economic cycle of the development of the State. Based on the study and analysis of the key indicators of the Russian economy for 2005-2012, the paper offers indicators of economic activity of the RML system and their classification. The article identifies a number of indicators of economic activity of the RML system, which were of warning nature during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. I have proved the need for State regulation of the RML system and proposed its milestones and mechanisms. Results I conclude that the RML system should be subject to close oversight on the part of regulatory authorities. Conclusions and Relevance Early recognition of the threat of crisis and implementation of the proposed tools of State regulation will help to smooth the economic cycle of the State development and to create a basis for its sustainable development.
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