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Finance and Credit
 

New insight into cash reserves and their role in real economy

Vol. 20, Iss. 37, OCTOBER 2014

Available online: 9 October 2014

Subject Heading: ISSUES ON ECONOMICS

JEL Classification: 

Pages: 42-53

Liferenko Yu.V. Moscow State University of Economics, Statistics and Informatics, Tver Branch, Tver, Russian Federation
LiferenkoJV@yandex.ru

The article deals with the problem of effective State intervention in the economy through increasing or limiting money supply in the economy based on monetary methods of anti-inflationary regulation. The aim of the study is to deepen the knowledge of the areas where money is circulating and to provide a new approach to the role and importance of State regulation of money supply in commodity circulation. In terms of cash flow, the economy consists of two fundamentally different parts: the first is the well-known real economy with production and commodity trade and the second, which has not been earlier considered in the economic disciplines and has been conventionally called "virtual economy", is, in fact, a cash reserve of the modern economy. Based on this theoretical basis and the facts of reality, there is a task to demonstrate that the level of efficiency of the monetary policy that regulates money in circulation to limit inflation rate is close to zero. With the help of a technical analysis, I have demonstrated the relationships and dependencies between the dynamics of GDP and dynamics of money supply in different parts of the country's economy (virtual and real), as well as the dynamics of commodity prices within an economic cycle. I have compared these relationships in Russia, China and the United States. The empiric testing resulted in the finding that real facts scarcely ever support the quantity theory of money. The emerging surplus of money, even in huge quantities, always flows to the virtual (reserve) part of the economy, and, therefore, sometimes causes a rise in prices in the real economy. My conclusion is that today the State has no reliable tools and methods to affect the distribution of money between the two parts of the economy. Therefore, the monetarist methods of anti-inflation fight do not yield the desired outcome. The most critical challenge of today is to create a new theory of inflation and find adequate measures to combat the inflation.

Keywords: real, virtual, economy, inflation, quantitative theory, money, money circulation, money supply, prices

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