The article considers the main theories of dividend policy and their applicability in the Russian practice. The authors reveal influence of branch accessory of organization on its dividend policy. The paper offers the approach to development of models of dividend payments forecasting for the Russian companies. The work presents the forecasting model of dividend payments on a basis of probit model and binary tree of classification.
Keywords: dividend policy, econometric modeling, forecasting of dividend payments
References:
Brealey R., Myers S. Printsipy korporativnykh finansov [Principles of corporate finance]. Moscow, Olimp-Biznes Publ., 2012.
Lukasevich I.Ia. Dividendnaia politika: teoreticheskie aspekty i osobennosti v RF [Dividend policy: theoretical aspects and features in the Russian Federation]. Upravlenie korporativnymi finansami – Management of corporate finance, 2007, no. 4, pp. 228–241.
Pirogov N.K., Volkova N.N. Dividendnaia politika kompanii na razvivaiushchikhsia rynkakh [Dividend policy of companies in emerging markets]. Korporativnye finansy – Corporate finance, 2009, no. 4, pp. 57–78.
Aivazian V., Booth L., Cleary S. Do Emerging Market Firms Follow Different Dividend Policies from U.S. Firms? Journal of Financial Research, 2003, no. 26, pp. 371–387.
Black Fischer. The Dividend Puzzle. Journal of Portfolio Management, 1970, no. 2, pp. 5–8.
Brennan M.J. Taxes, Market Valuation and Corporate Finance Policy. National Tax Journal, 1970, no. 23, pp. 417–427.
Fama E.F., French K.R. Disappearing Dividends: Changing Firm Characteristics or Lower Propensity to Pay? Journal of Financial Economics, 2001, no. 60, pp. 3–43.
Gordon M.J., Gоuld L.I. The Cost of Equity Capital: a Reconsideration. Journal of Finance, 1979, no. 33, pp. 849–861.
John K., Lang L. Strategic Insider Trading around Dividend Announcements: Theory and evidence. NYU, Working Paper, 1991.
Litzenberger R.H., Ramaswamy K. The Effect of Personal Taxes and Dividends on Capital Asset Prices. Journal of Financial Economics, June 1979, pp. 163–196.
Miller M.H., Modigliant F. Dividend Policy Growth and the Valuation of Shares. Journal of Business, Oct. 1961, pp. 411–433.
Ross S.A. The Determination of Financial Structure: The Incentive-Signaling Approach. Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, 1977, no. 8, pp. 28–40.