Home  Journals  Finance and Credit  23(503) - 2012 June

Forecasting of income of the federal budget from oil sector: analysis of quality and improvement methods

Available online: 22 June 2012

Subject Heading: Budgetary system

JEL Classification: 

In the article questions of forecasting of the income of the federal budget regarding NDPI (on oil), the export customs duties (on oil crude and the goods developed from oil) and a profit tax of the organizations are presented. On the basis of the analysis of data from 2008 for 2011 and the look-ahead period of 2012 -2014y.y. the conclusion that the methods applied at forecasting of this income, lead to considerable mistakes in forecasts is drawn. With a view of improvement of forecast quality the models of forecasting of these income types of the federal budget are offered.

Keywords: federal budget, forecasting, tax on extraction of commercial minerals, export custom duties, corporate profits tax, Urals oil, MICEX

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ISSN 2311-8709 (Online)
ISSN 2071-4688 (Print)

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