Boris A. MATVEEVSouth Ural State University (National Research University) (SUSU (NRU), Chelyabinsk, Russian Federation uprariska@mail.ru ORCID id: not available
Subject. The article is devoted to economic risk assessment. Objectives. The aim is to increase reliability and accuracy of economic risk quantification. Methods. I developed an economic and mathematical model of economic risk. To examine it, I used the apparatus of the spectral theory of random processes. Results. The spectral analysis enabled to replace the examination of the statistical model of economic risk by the study of its image with Fourier integral transform. As a result, I obtained a spectral risk indicator without disadvantages inherent in most traditional risk measures. The spectral approach helped measure risk in real time, which is necessary when organizing the risk management process. Verification of the spectral approach to risk assessment is considered on the case of innovative project. Conclusions. The study offers a solution to existing problems related to economic risk quantification, and presents a developed economic and mathematical model of economic risk. It proposes a spectral risk measure that takes into account the nature of the behavior of an economic variable, its possible deviation from expected value, and the uncertainty associated with the deviation. The paper also presents a unique computational program to calculate risk. The spectral risk analysis is of theoretical and practical value, as it enables to expand knowledge about risk, provides a theoretical underpinning of risk assessment, helps identify and eliminate the shortcomings inherent in known statistical measures.
