Industry-specific determinants of the effectiveness of initial public offerings (IPOs) in the Russian market amid geopolitical uncertainty and structural transformation
Subject. This article addresses industry-specific determinants of the effectiveness of initial public offerings of Russian issuers amid geopolitical uncertainty and structural transformation of the economy. Objectives. The article aims to identify the impact of industry affiliation, economic cycles and industry-specific indicators on the stock returns of Russian companies a year after an IPO. Methods. For the study, I used a systems approach, and statistical and regression analyses. The empirical sample includes IPOs of Russian issuers conducted on domestic and international stock exchanges in 2000–2024. Results. Industry affiliation remains statistically significant after controlling for deal parameters, macroeconomic conditions and economic cycles. The first industry-specific factor, reflecting the primary investment signal within a sector, is statistically significant. The analysis also reveals a negative impact of small issuer capitalization and the 2008–2009 crisis period on one-year post-IPO stock returns. Additional sectoral analysis shows that debt sustainability is an important factor for industry and the real sector. Conclusions and Relevance. The effectiveness of IPOs in the Russian market is determined not only by universal placement parameters, but also by industry affiliation. Industry affects post-IPO returns both through sector affiliation and through an issuer’s relative position within its industry based on key industry-specific characteristics. The results may be useful to investors, issuers and analysts assessing IPO attractiveness and developing an industry-based approach to new offerings in the Russian capital market.
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