Subject. This article examines the methodological aspects of developing management decisions regarding personnel remuneration in the context of business environment uncertainty. Objectives. The article aims to develop methodological principles for managing the employee remuneration system using a scenario-based approach. Methods. For the study, I used scenario analysis tools. Results. Based on the study's findings, the article presents proposals for implementing a scenario-based approach to managing the employee remuneration system and determines projected values for the motor vehicle production index, the unemployment rate, and the average wage growth rate in the automotive industry. The article also proposes specific measures regarding personnel remuneration for the baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios of the automotive industry's development. Conclusions. Applying a scenario-based approach to managing the staff remuneration system helps account for the impact of external business environment factors. In contrast to the traditional forecasting approach based on expert assessments, the scenario-based approach employed in this study is notable for its greater degree of formalization, relying on quantitatively measurable indicative indicators of industry development. This helps improve the flexibility and adaptability of the reward system to ongoing changes.
Keywords: reward, scenario analysis, scenario forecasting, automotive industry
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