Subject. This article looks at the balance sheets of credit institutions in Russia. Objectives. The article aims to identify trends, relationships, and risks in the structure of bank balance sheets to develop strategic and tactical recommendations for optimizing the management of assets and liabilities in credit institutions. Methods. For the study, I used a comprehensive time series analysis together with econometric analysis, building exponential trends and assessing their quality, calculating correlation coefficients, as well as predictive modeling. Results. The article shows steady asset growth with periods of decline and recovery and points out that the loan portfolio is the main driver of growth, while securities are the second most important and predictable component. The article also provides detailed quantitative forecasts for major components of assets and liabilities across three scenarios, offers recommendations, outlines strategic priorities, and suggests tactical measures. Relevance. The study demonstrates the potential and possibilities of combining financial analysis with data science methods and will be useful to regulators when assessing systemic risks and the stability of the banking sector, to CFOs of credit institutions in strategic planning and business model diversification, and to analysts and investors when analyzing trends in the banking sector and evaluating the investment attractiveness of credit institutions.
Keywords: assets side, balance, bank, liquidity, liabilities side
References:
Laeven L., Ratnovski L., Tong H. Bank Size and Systemic Risk. IMF Staff Discussion Notes, 2014, vol. 2014, iss. 004, 34 p. DOI: 10.5089/9781484363720.006
Cuestas J.C., Staehr K. The Great Leveraging in the European crisis countries: Domestic credit and net foreign liabilities. Journal of Economic Studies, 2017, vol. 44, iss. 6, pp. 895–910. DOI: 10.1108/JES-12-2016-0268
Cuestas J.C., Kukk M. The interaction between housing prices and housing credit: Evidence from a country with rapid credit accumulation. Journal of Economic Studies, 2020, vol. 48, iss. 1, pp. 191–209. DOI: 10.1108/JES-11-2019-0519
Buch C.M., Buchholz M., Knoll K., Weigert B. Why macroprudential policy matters in a monetary union. Oxford Economic Papers, 2021, vol. 73, iss. 4, pp. 1604–1633. DOI: 10.1093/oep/gpab036
Louzis D.P., Vouldis A.T., Metaxas V.L. Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: A comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios. Journal of Banking & Finance, 2012, vol. 36, iss. 4, pp. 1012–1027. DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2011.10.012
Bawa J.K., Basu S. Restructuring assets reform, 2013: Impact of operational ability, liquidity, bank capital, profitability and capital on bank credit risk. IIMB Management Review, 2020, vol. 32, iss. 3, pp. 267–279. DOI: 10.1016/j.iimb.2019.10.009
Kolchanov Yu.I. [Global financial and economic crisis and the crisis in Russia]. Vestnik Permskogo gosudarstvennogo tekhnicheskogo universiteta. Sotsial'no-ekonomicheskie nauki, 2009, no. 3, pp. 24–35. (In Russ.) EDN: KYXVFL
Miklashevskaya N.A., Avdeeva E.G. [Currency crisis of 2008–2009 in Russia: Causes and features]. Finansy i kredit, 2011, no. 8, pp. 49–56. (In Russ.) EDN: NCVWMT
Var'yash I.Yu. [We must fight for the future]. Bankovskoe delo, 2009, no. 2, pp. 14–17. (In Russ.) EDN: JWANMN
Zelenyi P.V. [Currency crisis in Russia of 2014–2016]. Ekonomika i predprinimatel'stvo, 2017, no. 3-1, pp. 206–210. (In Russ.) EDN YKSQWJ
Fomin D.A. [Modern currency crisis in Russia]. EKO, 2015, no. 6, pp. 57–74. (In Russ.) EDN: TSOANF
Sherstnev M.A. [Russian currency crisis: sources, nature and perspectives]. EKO, 2015, no. 12, pp. 146–153. (In Russ.) EDN: UYXEIP
Osama A.M., Mun D.V., Fatma D. [Responding to the COVID-19 pandemic: economics and health of economically developed and developing countries]. Ekonomicheskie otnosheniya, 2020, vol. 10, no. 4, pp. 981–998. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.18334/eo.10.4.111083 EDN: XACLLR
Dubova S.E., Legkii I.P. [The COVID-19 pandemic and economic sanctions: assessing their impact on the Russian banking sector as crisis-provoking events]. Finansovye rynki i banki, 2023, no. 7, pp. 12–17. (In Russ.) EDN: GHFPYP
Mokeeva T.V., Novozhenina A.D. [Assessing the impact of sanctions on the performance of Russian banks]. Finansy i kredit, 2024, vol. 30, iss. 11, pp. 2609–2626. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.24891/fc.30.11.2609 EDN: RRKCXV
Dankov N.A. [A retrospective assessment of the Central Bank’s loss function: Evidence from Russia and some other countries]. Finansy i kredit, 2025, vol. 31, iss. 8, pp. 169–186. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.24891/byqqxb EDN: BYQQXB
Makarova S.D., Glukhov M.A. [Debt security of the Russian economy in the context of sanctions]. Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriya i praktika, 2024, vol. 23, iss. 5, pp. 893–909. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.24891/ea.23.5.893 EDN: QIPJWM
Sakovich M.I. [Asset and liability management as a factor in reducing the cost of external regulation of commercial banks]. Finansy i kredit, 2012, no. 39, pp. 38–43. (In Russ.) EDN: PDZWFT
Nazhmudinov A.D., Isaeva P.G. [Evaluation of remote banking services in Russia]. Finansy i kredit, 2020, vol. 26, iss. 5, pp. 1085–1098. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.24891/fc.26.5.1085 EDN: EIQPEB
Zhigunova A.V. [Tools for improving the credit policy of commercial banks]. Finansy i kredit, 2025, vol. 31, iss. 3, pp. 181–197. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.24891/fc.31.3.181 EDN: SXTXMB
Polishchuk A.I. [Key performance indicators of the credit system]. Finansy i kredit, 2012, no. 35, pp. 9–16. (In Russ.) EDN: PCMQLN
Likhacheva O.N., Belikevich A.S. [Factors influencing the structure of the Russian companies' capital]. Finansy i kredit, 2020, vol. 26, iss. 7, pp. 1647–1660. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.24891/fc.26.7.1647 EDN: XCKVKC
