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ИД «Финансы и кредит»






Digest Finance

Crisis dynamics as a manifestation of cyclical and coherent processes determined by a set of discrete macroeconomic cycles in the world economy

Vol. 26, Iss. 2, JUNE 2021

PDF  Article PDF Version

Received: 20 February 2018

Received in revised form: 12 March 2018

Accepted: 26 March 2018

Available online: 29 June 2021


JEL Classification: E44, F20, F21, F29, F37

Pages: 230–244


Evgenii L. LOGINOV Financial University under Government of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation


Aleksandr A. SHKUTA Financial University under Government of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation


Valeriya E. LOGINOVA Market Economy Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences (MEI RAS), Moscow, Russian Federation


Subject. This article deals with the cyclical-coherent processes determined by a set of discrete macroeconomic cycles in the global economy, and the dynamics of crises.
Objectives. The article aims to develop approaches to identifying the causes that determine the crisis dynamics of the world economy to obtain the possibility of proactive damping of crisis extremums on the interrelated monetary, financial, stock, and commodity markets.
Methods. For the study, we used the general scientific and special methods, including the methods of systems and economic analyses.
Results. To forecast macroeconomic dynamics, we propose to study metastable states of the world economy in the framework of macrocyclic processes in correlation with structural fluctuations determined by the influence of coherent-resonant set of vibrational modes of investment, monetary and financial, etc. processes. As well, we offer proactive damping of crisis extremums in the Russian economy and creation of conditions of their asymmetry by managing a package of digital financial assets with a certain volume of regulated emission of digital assets generating a new demand and reducing the risks of speculative attacks, implemented as a result of manipulative games of international speculative groups.
Conclusions and Relevance. Synchronization of stagnation quasiharmonic vibrations of structural (cyclical and non-cyclical) character fundamentally unbalances the economy and brings it beyond the boundaries of the effectiveness of traditional anti-crisis measures, which explains the duration and devastating pattern of the current crisis. The technology considered is proposed as an integral part of the management of macroeconomic systems' development of different levels in the world economy.

Keywords: crisis, cycles, fluctuations, coherence, resonance


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