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Digest Finance
 

Empirical research into the effect of oil prices on the cost relationship of the Russian Ruble and the U.S. Dollar

Vol. 21, Iss. 4, DECEMBER 2016

PDF  Article PDF Version

Received: 20 September 2016

Received in revised form: 10 October 2016

Accepted: 30 October 2016

Available online: 20 December 2016

Subject Heading: ECONOMIC AND STATISTICAL RESEARCH

JEL Classification: C12

Pages: 21-29

Lisitsa M.I. Russian State Hydrometeorological University, Saint Petersburg, Russian Federation
lisitsa1974@mail.ru

Importance The research pursues an experiment of detecting and verifying nonrandom statistical relationship between the oil price and foreign exchange rate.
Objectives The research is aimed to detect the statistical relationship mentioned above.
Methods I applied techniques for collecting and processing mass numerical data, and tools of mathematical statistics and probability theory facilitated through the automation of computational procedures, and graphical images generated in the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet.
Results The article reports when the dependence of the foreign exchange rate on oil prices considerably grows, remains sustainably high, or significantly weakens, within certain periods of time.
Conclusions and Relevance Oil prices have mostly strong or significant influence on the cost relationship of the Russian ruble and U.S. dollar. The presented approach may be needed for forecasting purposes in sectors that combine various aspects, and estimates can be used by oil exporters for financial planning, and by public authorities to design economic policies.

Keywords: oil price, cost relationship, Russian ruble, U.S. dollar, correlation coefficient, probability, nonrandom relationships

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