Regional Economics: Theory and Practice

Long-term risks of the Russian crop production under conditions of global climate change in the context of food security

Vol. 16, Iss. 6, JUNE 2018

Received: 16 February 2018

Received in revised form: 21 March 2018

Accepted: 23 April 2018

Available online: 15 June 2018


JEL Classification: E22, Q10, R11

Pages: 1127–1140

Yashalova N.N. Cherepovets State University, Cherepovets, Vologda Oblast, Russian Federation

Ruban D.A. Southern Federal University, Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation

Importance The article deals with issues related to the assessment of risks for sustainable socio-economic development of Russia's agriculture in the conditions of global climate change.
Objectives The article aims to define the long-term risks of the Russian crop production in the conditions of changing climate.
Methods For the study, we used forecast maps of temperature and precipitation changes, helping obtain a semi-quantitative estimation of projected climate change in Russia, as well as statistical information on the Russian crop production.
Results The highest long-term risks associated with the impact of climate change on gross harvesting of grain, sunflower seeds and potato are identified for the Central and Volga Federal Districts. However, they are significant in other territories as well. The remote geographical position of Siberia and the Russian Far East increases the risks identified.
Conclusions Global climate change unequivocally poses risks to crop production, regardless of the negative or positive impact on the cultivation of specific crops. Concerning the Federal districts of Russia, moderate long-term risks to grain, sunflower and potato crops are typical.

Keywords: agro-industrial complex, innovation, natural dangers, agricultural production, federal district


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