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National Interests: Priorities and Security

A priori estimate and reduction of the risk of demographic challenge to the national security of Russia. Part One. A systems analysis and modeling of the demographic challenge

Vol. 15, Iss. 4, APRIL 2019

Received: 7 February 2019

Received in revised form: 25 February 2019

Accepted: 14 March 2019

Available online: 15 April 2019

Subject Heading: Priorities of Russia

JEL Classification: C13, C31, K30, Z28

Pages: 648–665


Belov P.G. Moscow Aviation Institute (National Research University) (MAI), Moscow, Russian Federation


Subject This article main content includes the results of a problem-oriented analysis of the empirical data changes in the Russian population for the last twenty seven years, regarded as a challenge to the national security, and a graph-analytic model of the process of its onset and destructive manifestation.
Objectives The article illustrates an extreme threat to the current demographic situation and the possibility of its system research for a priori assessment of both the corresponding risk and the effects of all the factors and negative consequences taken into account.
Methods The study involves a systems analysis, deductive and axiomatic, and inductive and expert methods, and the logical and linguistic and mathematical modeling methods.
Results The article shows the boundedness of humanitarian approach to the study of dangerous social processes and the possibility of supplementing it with scientific methods. It also shows the constructiveness of more strict representation of the factors and parameters taken into account through the functions of linguistic variables and fuzzy numbers. The article presents a developed original model of emergence and negative development of the demographic challenge to the national security.
Conclusions The article concludes about the criticality of the current demographic situation in Russia, which is fraught to become history after three or four generations, but also about the principle possibility to remove the threat by replacing individual eclectic measures.

Keywords: challenges, modeling, risk, damage


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