A study of the role of scientific and technological development in production metallurgy based on the study of dynamics of publications of scientific papers
Lutovinov P.P.Ural Socio-Economic Institute, Branch of Academy of Labor and Social Relations, Chelyabinsk, Chelyabinsk region, Russian Federation lutovinov@ursei.ac.ru
Importance The paper underlines that the search for adequate evaluation tools for the status of the economic system and its individual parts gathers momentum. The evaluation of economic system development is carried out in accordance with officially published research findings of the Russian scientists. The paper shows the relation of changes in the economic system with the dynamics of publications in the field of metallurgy. Objectives We run modeling of the status of metallurgical enterprises based on the dynamics of publications of scientific papers. At the same time, we have solved the objectives as follows: to identify sources of information, to adapt the obtained information for research, to simulate the development of economic system processes through adapted information. Methods We have developed criteria for sorting the information, which has been obtained in scientific and technical library, and also have built the curve of publications. The article also describes the carrying out of forecasting by the method of exponential smoothing of its development. Results The paper builds two forecasting models for further development of the curve of publications. We underline that the curve of publications was compared with the curves of composite indexes of the external economic environment and composite indexes of metallurgical enterprises of the Chelyabinsk region. An analysis of the curve graphs has shown the greatest dependence of the curve and the curve of publications and the curve of the JSC Mechel generalized index. Conclusions and Relevance The economic system affects the growth of number of publications. According to the forecast, the next couple of years, the JSC Mechel will face a decline in overall index that will affect its economic sustainability. We emphasize that the offered ways for assessing the sustainability of enterprises will be of interest to the leadership, employees of planning and economic and financial departments, and also to students of all modes of study, who study economic disciplines.
Keywords: Keywords: economic environment, sustainability, forecasting, composite index
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