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National Interests: Priorities and Security
 

An agent-oriented social-ecological-economic model of a region

Vol. 11, Iss. 3, JANUARY 2015

PDF  Article PDF Version

Available online: 18 January 2015

Subject Heading: Priorities of Russia

JEL Classification: 

Pages: 2-11

Makarov V.L. Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation
makarov@cemi.rssi.ru

Bakhtizin A.R. Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation
cgemodel@yandex.ru

Sushko E.D. Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation
sushko_e@mail.ru

Importance In recent years, the Russian Federation authorities to the greater extent realize the need for regional development planning. At the same time, it is important to underline that environmental problems of territories become more acute, and the parameters of external environment affecting the economy of regions are subject to fluctuation due to various kinds of crisis in the global economy.
     Objectives The article aims to develop an instrument enabling to obtain high-quality forecasts of parameters of the socio-economic system depending on undertaken measures, as well as the estimation of dynamics of these parameters with possible environmental changes.
     Methods We have developed a multi-agent model of a region, which represents an artificial society, within the scope of which several individual models are integrated: natural environment of a region, the socio-demographic structure of its population, and the structure of its economy. This model is integrated in order to simulate the relationship of processes occurring in these areas.
     Results The model enables to demonstrate the dynamics of socio-economic and environmental characteristics of a region as a result of interaction of many independent actors (agents). The multitude of the agents simulates a real social structure of a region. In the model, the agents act in their own interests at pre-assigned institutional constraints.
     Conclusions and Relevance The design of the given model enables to simulate not only the influence of human activities on the economy and ecology of a region, but also the reverse influence of the quality of life of people on their health, working ability and behavior. The model can be used in the regional planning process to find a compromise between current and strategic goals to prevent over-exploitation of natural resources and to ensure a balanced economic growth.

Keywords: agent-based modeling, regional policy evaluation, environmental impact, human behavior, social, economic, environment, labor potential

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