Dudin M.N.Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russian Federation dudinmn@mail.ru
Lyasnikov N.V.Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russian Federation acadra@yandex.ru
The article analyzes the trends in the Russian economy development under economic sanctions. Exploring the rate of economic growth of the Russian Federation in the first half of 2014, the authors plan to determine the economic development prospects of the Russian Federation in the conditions of introduction of sectoral sanctions by the European Union and the United States. The legal, comparative and economic and statistical analysis methods constitute the methodological basis of this article. The authors came to a conclusion that the sanctions imposed on Russia, as well as the retaliation, are carrying threats to the economic growth that is expected to be negative in 2014. The industrial production remains one of the most stable sectors of the economy. Despite the negative impact of political factors, the industrial production dynamics showed a moderate growth in comparison to the same period in 2013. The investment activity started to slow down. The main hindrances to capital investment are the insecurity of the companies in demand for the mid-term perspective, the reduction of investment base within the background of profitability decline and the lack of productivity growth. The weakening of the Russian currency also plays a significant role that makes the investment programs, taking into account the cost of imported equipment, more expensive in ruble equivalent, and due to this fact, they become less profitable. In view of the sanctions, the Russian companies are reducing imported goods consumption of the investment group, which should partially compensate this negative factor for the economy by means of net exports. The situation in the money market appears to be stable largely because of the substantial dependence of banks on the money supply by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Nevertheless, the increase of the base interest rate makes it more expensive, even the most short-term money. With the new measures of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the liberalization of foreign exchange policy, the potential for further increase in the base interest rate looks rather high. Given the inevitable jump in food prices, as well as the unstable situation on global markets and the ruble and inflation will force the regulator to tighten interest rate policy in 2014. Thus, the Russian economy under the influence of economic sanctions imposed by the EU and U.S. has a chance to move from stagnating to the phase of a technical recession. To overcome these consequences, Russia should pursue a new model of economic development, which should ensure the observing of the requirements to the economy, society and the State. The practical significance of the research is to develop measures for the Russian economy to emerge from the crisis created by the sanctions imposed.
Keywords: sanctions, economy, Russian Federation, development, European Union, USA, crisis
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