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National Interests: Priorities and Security
 

Prediction of the long-term economic impact of the sanctions against the Russian high-tech industry (a case of civil aviation industry)

Vol. 10, Iss. 41, NOVEMBER 2014

Available online: 1 November 2014

Subject Heading: Priorities of Russia

JEL Classification: 

Pages: 14-25

Klochkov V.V. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation
vlad_klochkov@mail.ru

Kritskaya S.S. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation
kritskaya.svetlana@gmail.com

The area of international cooperation between the Russian and foreign enterprises faces serious risks and restrictions resulting from the complicating foreign policy situation. In this connection, an analysis of the efficiency of full range of high-tech industry production localization in Russia (particularly, aircraft industry production) in case of sanctions against the Russian high-tech manufacturing assumes prominence. The article evaluates an influence of the volume of aircraft components production in the territory of the Russian Federation on labor productivity in corresponding manufacturing segments of aviation industry, competent employees' wage rate and entrepreneurs' rates of return. The authors demonstrate that in the long-term perspective, the forced localization of production in Russia of all aviation main components could be profitable even if the final production of aircraft industry will be focused only on the domestic market and on the markets of some developing countries. Even more, the paper demonstrates that such forced localization can lead to the country's GDP growth within wide range of conditions, provided that if sanctions were not imposed such industries could not appear in Russia at all. The authors consider the necessity of additional funding for construction and technical upgrading of enterprises, because of lower average productivity and increase of the amount of the basic production assets that are necessary to ensure the given release, and it serves as the prerequisite to ensure the planned volumes and nomenclature of aircraft equipment production in the conditions of restrictions imposed on the aircraft components importation. The authors consider the quantitative estimations of growth in value of enterprises' fixed assets of aviation industry and the necessary number of workers employed in the industry sector, which will allow to ensure the planned production output in case of forced localization of production of aviation equipment components.

Keywords: high-quality production, localization, labor productivity, industrial policy, economic sanctions, import substitution, efficiency, GDP

References:

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