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National Interests: Priorities and Security
 

Analysis of the prospects of the aviation industry in view of the threat of the imposition of sanctions on Russian economy

Vol. 10, Iss. 40, OCTOBER 2014

Available online: 25 October 2014

Subject Heading: Priorities of Russia

JEL Classification: 

Pages: 12-25

Kritskaya S.S. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences, RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation
kritskaya.svetlana@gmail.com

Klochkov V.V. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences, RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation
vlad_klochkov@mail.ru

The complicated international situation, which is an inevitable consequence of the worsening the global economic objective contradictions, shall likely lead to reduction, limitation, or even total cessation of cooperation between the Russian and foreign high-tech industries. An analysis of the possible implications of such changes for the Russian aircraft industry and search for the strategies to minimize the damage from the sanctions and other trade restrictions or even to use them for the country's benefit, assumes relevance. The authors have carried out a qualitative analysis of the situation in the aviation technology markets, high-tech markets of components for aviation technology, markets of the research and development of products, markets of equipment and technologies in terms of the possibility of introduction of the foreign sanctions against the Russian industry, as well as their potential consequences. The paper outlines possible scenarios for the introduction of the sanctions against the Russian aviation industry and civil aviation. The article shows that the economic sanctions might lead to the need of localization in the territory of the Russian Federation of the development and manufacture of various classes of aircraft, all the necessary parts for aviation equipment and industrial services, as well as providing a full range of applied research, innovation development, tests and certification of aviation equipment. The paper provides recommendations for compensation of the foreign policy risks in terms of the import of machinery and equipment for technical re-equipping the Russian aviation industry enterprises. The authors come to a conclusion that the technological and economic security of Russia in the sphere of development and manufacture of the technological equipment and ensuring of the competitiveness of the knowledge-based industry (including aviation industry) requires the direct communication between machine-tool enterprises and enterprises, which manufacture final products.

Keywords: aircraft industry, international cooperation, economic security, sanctions, scenarios, import substitution, localization, technological security

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