Importance The article analyzes the modeling and system analysis of the processes to improve the national system of higher education. Objective The aim is to determine the direction of development of the national higher education system for the foreseeable future. Methods In order to achieve this objective, I offer an original graphical modeling language, which facilitates the establishment of the model of the internal dynamics of the national system of higher education. In total, the model consists of 40 units and includes 8 feedback loops or basic archetypes; each of them reflects a specific event aimed to improve the system at the current time. As part of an overall scheme to improve the analysis, I analyze the activities, which were carried by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation and by the individual universities. The study of the basic archetypes of the listed activities made it possible to identify the expected consequences of their realization and cumulative contribution to the ongoing reform of the Russian higher education system. The article is based on the methodology of system analysis, which is reinforced by the structural modeling method of organizational and economic processes. The indicated method involves only 9 descriptive designs, and it allows in the "manual" mode to build and analyze the models of structural dynamics, which can be used to identify trends in the development of the system for the foreseeable future. Results Based on this analysis, I arrive at a conclusion that the national higher education system is in a state of bifurcation. At the beginning of the market reforms, while seeking immediate integration into the world educational space, the national higher education system was removed from the high-yielding stable state, which was achieved during the Soviet period, but it has thus far failed to reach any destination. With the aid of the analysis, I demonstrate that all archetypes (feedback loops), reflecting ongoing efforts are of intensifying nature and they are not able to ensure the controlled drift of the system to the desired state. In the article I deliver the recommendations, which realization will stabilize the national system of higher education in the new high-yielding condition as early as in the near perspective, and it will ensure its further development in accordance with the requirements of the current moment. Conclusions and Relevance The key recommendations include the successful completion of the reform of the system aimed to certify the personnel of higher qualification and introduction of external control of resulting knowledge the college graduates. As the case study, I discuss the national system of higher education and validate the hypothesis of the genetic nature of organizational and economic systems, and also make an assumption about the viability of the large-scale scientific studies in order to determine their genotypes and make an identification of the self-development algorithms.
Keywords: Keywords: internal dynamics, system, feedbacks, system archetypes, causal model, higher education system, external knowledge control, special-purpose program
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