Troshin D.V.Financial University under Government of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation giopup2@yandex.ru
Subject The subject of the study is the methodological approach and system of formalized models to assess the security of an economic entity. Objectives The study aims to investigate major stable relations in the sphere of security of an economic entity and to build an integral system of models for safety evaluation taking into account a variety of threats and their interactions. Methods The study rests on the systems analysis, research of operations, probability theory, and utility theory. Results I offer a mechanism for the integral evaluation of the security status of an economic entity represented by partial models implementing the mechanism, and make recommendations on implementing the stages of the mechanism. To assess safety, I consider total risk as a characteristic of the mixture of instances of threats. I also offer models to estimate damage resulting from a risk event, including threat avoidance using potential security and to assess risk over a long time horizon, a model of damage propagation considering the inter-influence of risk events based on the idea of the viral mechanism of risk exposure. Conclusions and Relevance The distinctive feature of the proposed methodological approach and system models is a focus on the specifics of activities. The choice is in favor of more subtle multidimensional models and methods that take into account the relationships between the objects of the security problem enabling to make forecasts and using expert knowledge in many specific issues.
Basalai S.I. Ekonomicheskaya otsenka posledstvii realizatsii ugroz i upravlenie ekonomicheskoi bezopasnost'yu otrasli natsional'noi ekonomiki [Economic evaluation of the aftermath of threats and management of the national economy’s economic security]. Transportnoe delo Rossii = Transport Business of Russia, 2008, no. 4, pp. 13–15.
Vdovina S.B. [Tools for qualitative assessment of project risks]. Ekonomicheskaya bezopasnost' Rossii: problemy i perspektivy:materialy mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii [Proc. All-Russia Sci. Conf. Economic Security of Russia: Problems and Prospects]. Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod State Technical University n.a. R.E. Alekseev Publ., 2013, 480 p.
Vlasenko M.N. Metodologiya obespecheniya ekonomicheskoi effektivnosti i bezopasnogo funktsionirovaniya khozyaistvuyushchikh sub"ektov v usloviyakh regional'nogo rynka: sistemnyi podkhod [A methodology to support the economic efficiency and safe operation of business entities under regional market conditions: a systems approach]. Natsional'nye interesy: prioritety i bezopasnost' = National Interests: Priorities and Security, 2012, no. 5, pp. 40–47.
Zimina L.E. [Enterprise security ethics as an integral part of economic security]. Materialy Mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii Ekonomicheskaya bezopasnost' Rossii: problemy i perspektivy [Proc. All-Russia Sci. Conf. Economic Security of Russia: Problems and Prospects]. Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod State Technical University n.a. R.E. Alekseev Publ., 2014, 492 p.
Il'in M.E., Fedorova L.A. Model' otsenki ustoichivosti razvitiya naukoemkikh proizvodstv aviatsionnoi promyshlennosti [A model to assess the sustainable development of science-intensive enterprises of the aviation industry]. Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriya i praktika = Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, 2014, no. 4, pp. 20–29.
Ilysheva N.N., Karanina E.V. Metodologicheskie aspekty formirovaniya, otsenki i sovershenstvovaniya sistemy strategicheskogo analiza i upravleniya biznes-riskami predpriyatiya [Methodological aspects of building, assessing and improving the system of strategic analysis and business risk-management of an enterprise]. Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriya i praktika = Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, 2014, no. 11, pp. 23–30.
Razgonov S.A. Osnovnye osobennosti sistemy ekonomicheskoi bezopasnosti otrasli avtomobilestroeniya v sovremennykh usloviyakh [Major specifics of the system of economic security of the motor industry under modern conditions]. Transportnoe delo Rossii = Transport Business of Russia, 2010, no. 8, pp. 80–87.
Chuzhmarov A.I. Obespechenie ekonomicheskoi bezopasnosti predpriyatii kak osnovnoi faktor effektivnogo funktsionirovaniya otrasli promyshlennosti [Economic security of enterprises as a main factor of efficient functioning of the industry]. Available at: Link. (In Russ.)
Avdonin B.N., Strel'nikova I.A., Khrustalev E.Yu. Mekhanizmy snizheniya riska pri sozdanii vysokotekhnologichnoi naukoemkoi produktsii [Risk mitigation mechanisms when creating high-tech knowledge-based products]. Audit i finansovyi analiz = Audit and Financial Analysis, 2011, no. 5, pp. 226–243.
Goloshchapova L.V. Formirovanie mekhanizma obespecheniya bezopasnosti ekonomicheskogo potentsiala predpriyatiya [Creating the mechanism to ensure the security of the economic potential of an enterprise]. Vektor nauki TGU. Seriya: Ekonomika i upravlenie =Vector of Science of TSU. Series: Economics and Management, 2012, no. 4, pp. 46–49.
Dadalko V.A., Pitul'ko S.Yu. Ekonomicheskaya bezopasnost' aerokosmicheskoi otrasli Rossii [The economic security of the aerospace industry of Russia]. Minsk, Information Computer Centre of Ministry of Finance of Republic of Belarus Publ., 2010, 268 p.
Innovatsionnye preobrazovaniya kak imperativ ustoichivogo razvitiya i ekonomicheskoi bezopasnosti Rossii [Innovation as an indispensable requirement for sustainable development and economic security of Russia]. Moscow, Ankil Publ., 2013, 688 p.
Makarov Yu.N., Khrustalev E.Yu. Ekonomicheskoe obespechenie bezopasnogo funktsionirovaniya i razvitiya raketno-kosmicheskikh proizvodstv [Economic and safe functioning and development of rocket and space industries]. Natsional'nye interesy: prioritety i bezopasnost' = National Interests: Priorities and Security, 2012, no. 5, pp. 28–39.
Tovstonoshenko V.N. Metodologicheskii podkhod k upravleniyu riskami na predpriyatiyakh raketno-kosmicheskoi promyshlennosti [A methodological approach to risk management at the rocket and space industry enterprises]. Vestnik SibGAU = Bulletin of SibSAU, 2014, no. 1, pp. 225–229.
Khrustalev E.Yu. Ekonomicheskaya bezopasnost' naukoemkogo predpriyatiya: metody diagnostiki i otsenki [Economic security of knowledge-based enterprises: diagnosis and assessment]. Natsional'nye interesy: prioritety i bezopasnost' = National Interests: Priorities and Security, 2010, no. 13, pp. 51–58.
Troshin D.V. Ontologiya bezopasnosti: paradigma sushchestvovaniya [Ontology of security: a paradigm of existence]. Natsional'nye interesy: prioritety i bezopasnost' = National Interests: Priorities and Security, 2014, no. 23, pp. 40–48.
Keeney R.L., Raiffa H. Prinyatie reshenii pri mnogikh kriteriyakh: predpochteniya i zameshcheniya [Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Trade-offs]. Moscow, Radio i svyaz' Publ., 1981, 560 p.
Troshin D.V. Skalyarizatsiya vektornykh predpochtenii: preodolenie primitivizatsii [Scalarization of vector preferences: overcoming the primitivization]. Effektivnoe antikrizisnoe upravlenie = Effective Crisis Management, 2013, no. 3, pp. 88–94.
Taleb N.N. Chernyi lebed'. Pod znakom nepredskazuemosti [The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable]. Moscow, KoLibri Publ., 2009, 528 p.
