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Regional Economics: Theory and Practice
 

Forecasting the average monthly income from employment: The Tula Oblast case study

ISSUE 6, JUNE 2025

Received: 13 March 2025

Accepted: 17 April 2025

Available online: 26 June 2025

Subject Heading: ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODELING

JEL Classification: С51, C53, R58

Pages: 127-152

https://doi.org/10.24891/cdslye

Svetlana N. SMIRNOVA Corresponding author, Tula State University (TulSU), Tula, Russian Federation
guandved@yandex.ru

ORCID id: not available

Rimma Yu. BOLDYREVA Tula State University (TulSU), Tula, Russian Federation
b-rimma@mail.ru

ORCID id: not available

Nadezhda N. MAKAROVA Tula State University (TulSU), Tula, Russian Federation
nm261075@gmail.com

ORCID id: not available

Mikael Zh. GALUSTYAN Tula State University (TulSU), Tula, Russian Federation
e-mail: justmike@yandex.ru

ORCID id: not available

Anna L. SABININA Tula State University (TulSU), Tula, Russian Federation
sabinina-anna@yandex.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5418-6643

Subject. This article discusses the issues related to labor remuneration and regional budget formation.
Objectives. The article aims to develop a scientific and methodological approach that may help analyze and forecast the average monthly accrued wages of hired employees in organizations, individual entrepreneurs, and private individuals.
Methods. For the study, we used an interdisciplinary approach based on a combination of economic, statistical, and mathematical methods.
Results. The article presents an author-developed mathematical model that helps provide more accurate forecasting of the economic condition of the region and efficient resource allocation.
Relevance. The data obtained constitute a basis for analyzing factors influencing the labor market, and can be used to develop new forecasting models.

Keywords: regional policy, forecasting, average monthly income from labor activities, average monthly salary, socioeconomic development of regions

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