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Regional Economics: Theory and Practice
 

A cognitive analysis and scenario modeling of retail trade turnover in the Kemerovo Oblast – Kuzbass

Vol. 22, Iss. 1, JANUARY 2024

Received: 29 June 2023

Received in revised form: 17 August 2023

Accepted: 13 October 2023

Available online: 15 January 2024

Subject Heading: SOCIOECONOMIC POLICY

JEL Classification: E21, E27

Pages: 23–45

https://doi.org/10.24891/re.22.1.23

Ol'ga N. KOZLOVA Kemerovo State University (KemSU), Kemerovo, Russian Federation
kozlova-oliy@mail.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5821-2204

Galina E. MEKUSH Kemerovo State University (KemSU), Kemerovo, Russian Federation
mekush_ge@mail.ru

ORCID id: not available

Anna E. SAKHABUTDINOVA Ministry of Economic Development of Kemerovo Oblast – Kuzbass, Kemerovo, Russian Federation
aforanna@yandex.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6361-3918

Subject. This article discusses the issues of consumer market development.
Objectives. The article aims to analyze the factors determining the volume and changes in retail trade turnover of the Kemerovo Oblast.
Methods. For the study, we used the economic and mathematical research methods.
Results. The article presents a cognitive model in the form of an oriented graph that helps assess the impact of various factors on the target indicator, namely retail turnover. It substantiates the expediency of using a cognitive modeling technology to study and forecast such macroeconomic indicators as the volume and changes in retail trade turnover.
Conclusions. The best scenario for the development of the consumer market of the Kemerovo Oblast assumes the impulse impact on trade turnover of such factors as unemployment, the number of people employed (primarily in the field of trade), the consumer price index, and the poverty rate.

Keywords: cognitive modeling, forecasting, standard of living, consumer market

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