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Regional Economics: Theory and Practice
 

A dynamic model of development of the Tyumen Oblast based on input-output balance

Vol. 21, Iss. 3, MARCH 2023

Received: 7 November 2022

Received in revised form: 23 December 2022

Accepted: 4 February 2023

Available online: 15 March 2023

Subject Heading: ECONOMIC-MATHEMATICAL MODELING

JEL Classification: B16, B21, D57, H72, R13

Pages: 551–573

https://doi.org/10.24891/re.21.3.551

Vladimir R. TSIBUL'SKII Tyumen Scientific Centre SB RAS, Tyumen, Russian Federation
v-tsib@yandex.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0353-9522

Il'ya G. SOLOV'EV Tyumen Scientific Centre SB RAS, Tyumen, Russian Federation
solovyev@ikz.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9871-0075

Larisa V. VAZHENINA Industrial University of Tyumen, Tyumen, Russian Federation
vagenina@rambler.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0472-3815

Denis A. GOVORKOV Tyumen Scientific Centre SB RAS, Tyumen, Russian Federation
dagovorkov@mail.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5430-0231

Subject. This article analyzes the prospects for the application of mathematical models in monitoring of the economic development of the Tyumen Oblast.
Objectives. The article aims to test the scheme for adjusting the matrices of Leontief's dynamic model of input-output balance using statistical data reflecting the economic situation of the Tyumen Oblast.
Methods. To consider the scheme for identifying the coefficients of the dynamic model, we used the least squares method.
Results. The article presents estimates of the dynamic model matrices, which reproduce model states close to the actual trajectories.
Relevance. The results of the settings of the dynamic model of input-output balance for the Tyumen Oblast in the first approximation make it possible to restore the model volumes of output, which in the future can be used to compare forecast, actual and model trajectories with the control of deviations and the assessment of their causes.

Keywords: input-output balance, dynamic Leontief model, model coefficients estimation, development strategy of Tyumen Oblast, growth trajectory

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