Subject. This article analyzes the prospects for the application of mathematical models in monitoring of the economic development of the Tyumen Oblast. Objectives. The article aims to test the scheme for adjusting the matrices of Leontief's dynamic model of input-output balance using statistical data reflecting the economic situation of the Tyumen Oblast. Methods. To consider the scheme for identifying the coefficients of the dynamic model, we used the least squares method. Results. The article presents estimates of the dynamic model matrices, which reproduce model states close to the actual trajectories. Relevance. The results of the settings of the dynamic model of input-output balance for the Tyumen Oblast in the first approximation make it possible to restore the model volumes of output, which in the future can be used to compare forecast, actual and model trajectories with the control of deviations and the assessment of their causes.
Keywords: input-output balance, dynamic Leontief model, model coefficients estimation, development strategy of Tyumen Oblast, growth trajectory
Leontief W.W. Mezhotraslevaya ekonomika [Input-Output Economics]. Moscow, Ekonomika Publ., 1997, 479 p.
Tsibul'skii V.R., Solov'ev I.G., Vazhenina L.V., Govorkov D.A. [Estimation of the input-output balance model for the south of the Tyumen Oblast]. Regional'naya ekonomika: teoriya i praktika = Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, 2022, vol. 20, iss. 8, pp. 1586–1604. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Tsibulsky V.R., Vazhenina L.V., Solovyov I.G. et al. Assessment of the Leontiev Productive Matrix of the Economic Development Model for Tyumen Region (Russia). R-Economy, 2022, vol. 8, iss. 2, pp. 135–147. URL: Link
Nikaido H. Convex Structures and Economic Theory. New York, Academic Press, 1968, 405 p.
Miller R., Blair B. Input-Output Analysis. Foundations and Extensions. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2009, 750 p. URL: Link
Serebryakov G.R., Uzyakov M.N., Yantovsky A.A. [The Ivanovo Oblast economy: An IO model]. Problemy prognozirovaniya = Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2002, no. 5, pp. 64–74. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Dondokov Z.B.-D., Dyrkheev K.P., Munaev L.A. et al. [An inter-industry analysis of the economy of the Republic of Buryatia on the basis of input-output tables]. Regional'naya ekonomika: teoriya i praktika = Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, 2014, vol. 12, iss. 28, pp. 55–62. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Sayapova A.R. [Regional differentiation of coefficients of direct expenditures in input-output symmetric tables]. Problemy prognozirovaniya = Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2011, no. 5, pp. 39–47. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Tsybatov V.A. [Models and methods strategizing regional development]. Vestnik Samarskogo gosudarstvennogo ekonomicheskogo universiteta = Vestnik of Samara State University of Economics, 2015, no. 3, pp. 49–66. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Mikheeva N.N. [Long-term forecasts of regional development: analysis of results and the problem of development]. Problemy prognozirovaniya = Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2018, no. 5, pp. 24–38. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Smirnov N.V., Smirnova T.E. [Prediction of macroeconomic trends and control of a multicommodity economy based on the dynamic input-output models]. Finansy i biznes = Finance and Business, 2015, no. 1, pp. 42–53. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Shishkin A.A., Shishkin A.I. [Determining the trajectory of regional development]. Ekonomika i upravlenie = Economics and Management, 2017, no. 4, pp. 27–32. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Barkalova T.G., Kokotkina T.N., Vasil'eva E.O. et al. [Prospects of use of simulation modeling in forecasting of region''s socio-economic development]. Ekonomika: vchera, segodnya, zavtra = Economics: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow, 2016, no. 9, pp. 44–59. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Mashunin Yu.K., Mashunin I.A. [Organization of management, modeling and forecasting of development of economy of the region]. Regional'naya ekonomika i upravlenie: elektronnyi nauchnyi zhurnal, 2016, no. 1, pp. 29–58. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Dzhurka N.G. [Development trajectories of the Russian Far East: evaluation based on the dynamic model of economic interactions]. Problemy prognozirovaniya = Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2018, no. 2, pp. 49–59. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Volkov Yu.N., Dremova O.V. [Modeling the effect of project investments on the regional economic dynamics by macromodels]. Trudy MFTI. Trudy Moskovskogo fiziko-tekhnicheskogo instituta (natsional'nogo issledovatel'skogo universiteta) = Proceedings of Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, 2012, vol. 4, iss. 2, pp. 89–100. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Myakshin V.N. [Intersectoral balance as tool for development of regional investment strategy]. Regional'naya ekonomika: teoriya i praktika = Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, 2013, vol. 11, iss. 30, pp. 37–46. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Baeva N.B. [Models and methods of the composite trajectory of the regional social and economic system balanced growth]. Sovremennaya ekonomika: problemy i resheniya = Modern Economics: Problems and Solutions, 2016, no. 5, pp. 8–21. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Masakova I.D. [The Russian practice of compiling input-output tables: problems and prospects of development]. Problemy prognozirovaniya = Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2019, no. 2, pp. 14–26. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Govorkov D.A., Novikov V.P., Solov'ev I.S., Tsibul'skii V.R. [A computational scheme to estimate the Leontief model matrix coefficients according to input-output table data for the southern regions of the Tyumen Oblast]. Regional'naya ekonomika: teoriya i praktika = Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, 2021, vol. 19, iss. 12, pp. 2360–2383. (In Russ.) URL: Link