Subject. This article considers forecasting as one of the most important foundations of the State and municipal management system. Objectives. The article aims to systematize the theoretical foundations of population forecast. Methods. For the study, we used the general scientific and statistical analysis research methods. Results. The article offers the most complete classification of demographic projections depending on the criteria of time, space, forecasting goals, and influencing factors. It groups important factors affecting demographic development and the quality of population forecasts, and it presents an algorithm for developing a demographic prediction. Conclusions. Selecting a region for which demographic predictions are planned to be made acquires particular relevance in line with the concept of geodemographic ensemble.
Keywords: demographic projection, demographics, population
References:
Ivanter V.V., Suvorov A.V., Sutyagin V.S. [The main objectives and principles of socio-economic forecasting]. Upravlenie = Administration, 2015, vol. 3, iss. 1, pp. 8–17. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Arkhangel'skii V.N., Elizarov V.V. [Demographic projections in contemporary Russia: analysis of results and selection of hypotheses]. Nauchnye trudy: Institut narodnokhozyaistvennogo prognozirovaniya, 2016, vol. 14, pp. 524–545. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Antonov A.I., Medkov V.M., Arkhangel'skii V.N. Demograficheskie protsessy v Rossii XXI veka [Demographic processes in Russia of the 21st century]. Moscow, Graal' Publ., 2002, 167 p.
Likhacheva T.N., Korolenko A.V., Kalashnikov K.N. [Demographic forecast of the number of rural population in the Northwestern Federal District]. Problemy razvitiya territorii = Problems of Territory's Development, 2016, no. 6, pp. 112–131. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Bylina S.G. [Methodological approaches to scenario forecasting of rural population size in the Saratov region]. Vestnik Saratovskogo gosudarstvennogo sotsial'no-ekonomicheskogo universiteta = Vestnik of Saratov State Socio-Economic University, 2011, no. 2, pp. 54–56. (In Russ.)
Sukneva S.A. [Forecast of demographic development of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) up to 2025]. Regional'naya ekonomika: teoriya i praktika = Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, 2009, vol. 7, iss. 14, pp. 106–110. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Ponomarenko S.N. [Projections of population age structure and the number of young people in Russia]. Vestnik Vyatskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta = Herald of Vyatka State University, 2012, no. 4-4, pp. 125–131. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Whelpton P.K. Population of the United States, 1925 to 1970. American Journal of Sociology, 1928, vol. 34, no. 2, pp. 253–270. URL: Link
Nazarov A.A., Nosova M.G. [The technique of aging in demography and its applications]. Vestnik Tomskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Upravlenie, vychislitel'naya tekhnika i informatika = Tomsk State University Journal of Control and Computer Science, 2009, no. 3, pp. 67–74. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Medkov V.M. [UNO's demographic forecasts for the world and Russia]. Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. Seriya 18. Sotsiologiya i politologiya = Moscow State University Bulletin. Series 18. Sociology and Political Science, 2008, no. 1, pp. 135–151. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Bublikov V.V., Markova V.V. [Forecasts of Russia's demographic future]. Rossiya i sovremennyi mir = Russia and the Contemporary World, 2012, no. 4, pp. 109–120. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Arkhangel'skii V.N., Danilova I.A., Dmitriev R.V., Khasanova R.R. [Prospects of the demographic development of Russia until the mid-century]. Narodonaselenie = Population, 2017, no. 3, pp. 24–36. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Eremin A.A. [Altai Krai-2030: the experience of the regional demographic forecasting]. Problemnyi analiz i gosudarstvenno-upravlencheskoe proektirovanie = Problem Analysis and Public Administration Projection, 2012, vol. 5, iss. 1, pp. 48–58. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Blinova T.V., Bylina S.G. [Medium term scenario forecast of the rural population in Russia]. Ekonomika regiona = Economy of Region, 2014, no. 4, pp. 298–308. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Burima L.Ya. [Environment and population health]. Vestnik Prikamskogo sotsial'nogo instituta = Bulletin of Prikamsky Social Institute, 2019, no. 1, pp. 91–99. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Kozlov V.I. Dinamika chislennosti narodov: metodologiya issledovaniya i osnovnye faktory [Dynamics of the number of peoples: research methodology and main factors]. Moscow, Nauka Publ., 1969, 408 p.
Soroko E.L. [On the limits of application of the UN population projections]. Demograficheskoe obozrenie, 2018, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 6–31. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Manakov A.G., Suvorkov P.E. [The forecast of demographic processes in the countries of Southern Europe until the end of the twenty-first century]. Vestnik Pskovskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriya: Estestvennye i fiziko-matematicheskie nauki = Pskov State University Bulletin. Series of Natural, Physical and Mathematical Sciences, 2016, no. 9, pp. 69–83. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Smirnov A.V. [Methodological issues or population projections: population characteristics and forecasting levels]. Nauchnye vedomosti Belgorodskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriya: Ekonomika. Informatika = Belgorod State University Scientific Bulletin. Economics. Information Technologies, 2016, no. 9, pp. 95–102. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Bashlachev V.A. [The new meter demographic development on a calendar interval of 100 years]. Pskovskii regionologicheskii zhurnal = Pskov Journal of Regional Studies, 2014, no. 19, pp. 97–112. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Nifantova R.V. [Methodological foundations and modern methods of the population projection]. Ekonomika regiona = Economy of Region, 2013, no. 2, pp. 185–192. (In Russ.) URL: Link
