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Regional Economics: Theory and Practice

Understanding the theoretical and methodological background to the demographic prediction process

Vol. 20, Iss. 6, JUNE 2022

Received: 22 March 2022

Received in revised form: 27 April 2022

Accepted: 15 May 2022

Available online: 15 June 2022


JEL Classification: J11

Pages: 1164–1189


Elena V. SMIRENNIKOVA N. Laverov Federal Center for Integrated Arctic Research, Ural Branch of RAS (FCIARctic UrB RAS), Arkhangelsk, Russian Federation


Anna V. UKHANOVA N. Laverov Federal Center for Integrated Arctic Research, Ural Branch of RAS (FCIARctic UrB RAS), Arkhangelsk, Russian Federation


Subject. This article considers forecasting as one of the most important foundations of the State and municipal management system.
Objectives. The article aims to systematize the theoretical foundations of population forecast.
Methods. For the study, we used the general scientific and statistical analysis research methods.
Results. The article offers the most complete classification of demographic projections depending on the criteria of time, space, forecasting goals, and influencing factors. It groups important factors affecting demographic development and the quality of population forecasts, and it presents an algorithm for developing a demographic prediction.
Conclusions. Selecting a region for which demographic predictions are planned to be made acquires particular relevance in line with the concept of geodemographic ensemble.

Keywords: demographic projection, demographics, population


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