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Regional Economics: Theory and Practice
 

Designing alternative scenarios for the provincial region development based on the scenario planning methodology

Vol. 19, Iss. 12, DECEMBER 2021

PDF  Article PDF Version

Received: 25 October 2021

Received in revised form: 8 November 2021

Accepted: 17 November 2021

Available online: 14 December 2021

Subject Heading: REGIONAL STRATEGIC PLANNING

JEL Classification: O21, R58

Pages: 2237–2261

https://doi.org/10.24891/re.19.12.2237

Ol’ga S. BELOKUR Volga State University of Technology (Volgatech), Yoshkar-Ola, Mari El Republic, Russian Federation
GrozovaOS@volgatech.net

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4066-8537

Veronika Yu. MASLIKHINA Volga State University of Technology (Volgatech), Yoshkar-Ola, Mari El Republic, Russian Federation
Maslihina_nika@mail.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2673-266X

Galina S. TSVETKOVA Volga State University of Technology (Volgatech), Yoshkar-Ola, Mari El Republic, Russian Federation
CvetkovaGS@volgatech.net

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7701-090X

Subject. This article considers the issues of application of scenario planning techniques in the process of constructing alternative scenarios for the development of spatial socio-economic systems in the context of changes, complexity, and uncertainty.
Objectives. The article aims to form a scenario planning algorithm for spatial socio-economic systems and its implementation in relation to the Mari El Republic.
Methods. For the study, we used the systems approach and foresight techniques.
Results. The article presents four alternative scenarios for the development of the provincial region: intensive, technological, moderately technological and pessimistic. The article presents four alternative scenarios for the development of the provincial region, namely, the intensive, technological, moderate technological, and worst-case ones.
Conclusions and Relevance. The technological scenario for the provincial region’s development seems to be the most likely. It assumes moderately favorable prospects for attracting investment, which can stimulate the development of regional key industries. The proposed alternative scenarios can serve as a basis for the policy making by regional and municipal authorities.

Keywords: scenario, scenario planning, region, Mari El Republic

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