Ismikhаnov Z.N.Dagestan State University (DSU), Makhachkala, Republic of Dagestan, Russian Federation Zaur_7979@mail.ru ORCID id: not available
Subject. This article evaluates the quantitative relationships between agricultural development indicators based on identifiable econometric models. Objectives. The article aims to build identifiable structural econometric models of the relationships of key indicators of agricultural development in Russian regions in present-day conditions. Methods. For the study, I used econometric modeling and mathematical statistics techniques, and computer application programs. Results. The article substantiates the relevance of quantifying the relationship between key agricultural development indicators in Russian regions on the basis of identifiable econometric models, identifies major quantitative dependences, and presents statistically significant identifiable structural models of the relationship of agricultural development indicators. Conclusions. In today's environment, the possibilities for objective quantification of the relationship between agricultural development indicators are associated with the use of formalized quantitative methods. The statistical properties of identifiable structural models get improved as the number of observations increases. The best statistical properties are those obtained for the regions of the Southern Federal District.
Keywords: model identification, structural model, criterion, quantitative assessment, statistical significance
References:
Gerasimov A.N., Gromov E.I., Skripnichenko Yu.S. [Tools scenario forecasting in the management decision-making in the agricultural economy of the Stavropol Krai]. Ekonomika sel'skogo khozyaistva Rossii, 2015, no. 6, pp. 85–93. (In Russ.)
Gromov E.I. [Results of scenario forecasting of sustainable development of rural territories]. Vestnik Adygeiskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriya 5: Ekonomika, 2017, no. 3, pp. 116–124. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Rudoy E.V., Petukhova M.S. [Improving the method of scenario forecasting of scientific and technological development of the crop industry based on the analysis of the dynamics of factors of production]. Ekonomika sel'skokhozyaistvennykh i pererabatyvayushchikh predpriyatii = Economy of Agricultural and Processing Enterprises, 2019, no. 7, pp. 40–43. (In Russ.)
Malashonok A.A. [Assessing the external environment of the food sub-complex as a factor contributing to the sustainable development of the region's agricultural sector]. Regional'naya ekonomika: teoriya i praktika = Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, 2019, vol. 17, iss. 7, pp. 1377–1395. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Yukish V.F., Prokhorov T.M., Romanova A.A. [Forecasting indicators of and forestry of the Russian Federation]. Ekonomika i biznes: teoriya i praktika = Economy and Business: Theory and Practice, 2018, no. 2, pp. 97–101. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Anokhina M.E. [Modeling strategy for management of economic growth of agriculture]. Ekonomika sel'skokhozyaistvennykh i pererabatyvayushchikh predpriyatii = Economy of Agricultural and Processing Enterprises, 2019, no. 2, pp. 23–34. (In Russ.)
Polushkina T.M., Pronina Yu.Yu., Dubina G.I. [Developing the system of State regulation of agriculture at the regional level: A conceptual framework]. Regional'naya ekonomika: teoriya i praktika = Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, 2019, vol. 17, iss. 1, pp. 153–168. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Samygin D.Yu., Baryshnikov N.G., Mizyurkina L.A. [Models of scenario forecasting of the region’s agriculture]. Ekonomika regiona = Economy of Region, 2019, vol. 15, iss. 3, pp. 865–879. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Agarkova L.V., Gurnovich T.G., Berulava O.S. [Constructing the predictive parameters of activity of the regional AIC enterprises]. Regional'naya ekonomika: teoriya i praktika = Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, 2016, vol. 14, iss. 3, pp. 16–27. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Ivanova V.N., Seregin S.N., Grin'ko V.S. [The anti-Russian sanctions and import substitution: new growth opportunities of AIC products production in Russia]. Pishchevaya promyshlennost' = Food Industry, 2015, no. 7, pp. 8–14. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Borodin K.G. [Forecasting model of commodity markets development in the conditions of changing measures of a State policy]. Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody = Economics and Mathematical Methods, 2016, vol. 52, no. 1, pp. 95–111. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Vdovin S.M., Gus'kova N.D., Neretina E.A., Ivanova I.A. [Region's sustainable development prediction on the basis of economic-mathematical modeling]. Natsional'nye interesy: prioritety i bezopasnost' = National Interests: Priorities and Security, 2016, vol. 12, iss. 9, pp. 18–27. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Nosonov A.M. [Modern methods for spatial modeling of the development of agriculture]. Vestnik Moskovskogo gosudarstvennogo oblastnogo universiteta. Seriya: Estestvennye nauki = Bulletin of Moscow Region State University. Series: Natural Sciences, 2018, no. 3, pp. 62–74. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Khаchev M.M., Temmoeva S.A. [Econometric model of forecasting of development of agriculture in the region]. Mezhdunarodnyi zhurnal prikladnykh i fundamental'nykh issledovanii = International Journal of Applied and Fundamental Research, 2017, no. 9, pp. 163–167. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Degtyareva N.A., Berg N.A. [The adoption of effective management decisions on the basis of econometric forecasting]. Vestnik Chelyabinskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Ekonomicheskie nauki = Bulletin of Chelyabinsk State University. Economic Sciences, 2018, no. 7, pp. 176–183. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Ananiev S.A., Gusarova O.M. [Econometric modeling of the level of development of regional economy]. Mezhdunarodnyi studencheskii nauchnyi vestnik, 2017, no. 6. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Gel'fanova D.D., Mandrazhi Z.R., Sukhtaeva A.M. [Regression model and prediction of economic processes in the production of agricultural products]. Uchenye zapiski Krymskogo inzhenerno-pedagogicheskogo universiteta = Scientific Notes of Crimean Engineering and Pedagogical University, 2017, no. 4, pp. 37–42. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Adamadziev K.R., Akhmedov A.S. [Prediction of region's economic indicators by modeling methods]. Fundamental'nye issledovaniya = Fundamental Research, 2015, no. 10, part 2, pp. 330–335. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Rogachev A.F. [System analysis and forecasting of time series of crop production based on autocorellation functions and neural network technologies]. Izvestiya Nizhnevolzhskogo agrouniversitetskogo kompleksa: nauka i vysshee professional'noe obrazovanie = Izvestia of Lower Volga Agro-University Complex: Science and Higher Education, 2018, no. 3, pp. 309–316. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Borisovskaya K.A. [Economic-mathematical modeling and medium-term forecasting for food export volume of Russian Federation]. Vestnik Rostovskogo gosudarstvennogo ekonomicheskogo universiteta (RINKh) = Vestnik of Rostov State University of Economics (RINH), 2017, no. 3, pp. 23–29. URL: Link (In Russ.)
