Regional Economics: Theory and Practice

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Forecasting regional poverty

Vol. 17, Iss. 9, SEPTEMBER 2019

Received: 25 April 2018

Received in revised form: 15 March 2019

Accepted: 8 June 2019

Available online: 16 September 2019


JEL Classification: C13, C53, E17, I39, O10

Pages: 1625–1645

Smirnov V.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University (ChuvSU), Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation

Mulendeeva A.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University (ChuvSU), Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation

Subject This article examines the changes in regional poverty measures.
Objectives The article aims to forecast the level of regional poverty.
Methods For the study, we used a statistical analysis, reviewing the results of various scientific studies on regional poverty and self-sufficiency.
Results Assessing the interdependent factors of regional poverty helps identify consistently poor and self-sufficient regions. The consolidated forecast of regional poverty asymmetry makes it possible to form a hierarchy of trend weight of mutually conditioned factors and reveal the problem of interregional migration associated with low incomes and tensions in the labor market.
Conclusions The proposed approach for predicting regional poverty extends scientific knowledge in the field of regional planning and spatial development.

Keywords: skewness of distribution, dynamics, forecast, regional poverty, self-sufficiency, statistical analysis, growth rates


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