Importance The article studies the functioning of the regional agro-industrial complex and the building of scenario forecasting plans of its sustainable development. Objectives The paper aims to justify the forecast parameters of activity of the enterprises of regional agro-industrial complex and choose the effective methods of forecasting the results of agricultural production. Methods As a methodological basis of the research, we used system and scenario approaches to the agricultural production efficiency management and the methods of mathematical-statistical forecasting and economic-mathematical modeling. Results We justified the application of economic-mathematical methods to ensure the reliability of the researched object behavior modeling and prediction of the system's parameters based on the study of dynamics of industrial economic processes and assessment of the trends in their development. We predict the yield using spatial and temporal mathematical models, which allow to estimate the yield balance long term, get the extrapolated value, and to optimize. Conclusions and Relevance The proposed approaches can improve the forecast accuracy, reduce uncertainty and risk, as well as determine the priority areas of strategic development of the agro-industrial complex' sectors. The practical significance is that our recommendations may be used for planning, forecasting, organization and implementation of agricultural production, as well as elaborate the behavior of economic subjects adequate to the economic situation.
Keywords: forecasting, planning, management, modeling, sustainable development
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