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Regional Economics: Theory and Practice
 

Assessment of the competitiveness of automotive fuels, taking into account regional characteristics and initial data vagueness

Vol. 14, Iss. 1, JANUARY 2016

PDF  Article PDF Version

Received: 20 May 2015

Received in revised form: 22 June 2015

Accepted: 30 June 2015

Available online: 24 January 2016

Subject Heading: SPATIAL ECONOMICS

JEL Classification: Q41, Q42, Q47, R41

Pages: 61-69

Mazurova O.V. Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russian Federation
ol.mazurova@yandex.ru

Importance The article deals with the forecasting studies according to demand and prices of automotive fuels in the region, taking into account the comparative effectiveness of the use of traditional and alternative motor fuels and the increasing initial data vagueness.
Objectives The article aims to evaluate the effectiveness of demand for motor fuel in the region depending on the changes in fuel prices, energy competition, road transport technologies change, the share of alternative fuels in the regional market, baseline data uncertainty, region specifics.
Methods For the study, I used Monte-Carlo methods based on combining the assessment of price elasticity of demand for energy resources with optimization of energy and fuel supply in the region.
Results I present the results of the multivariate calculations and projections obtained of price according to the demand for motor fuels for freight transport in macro-regions of the Russian Federation in terms of energy and fuel supply for the period 2020–2025.
Conclusions and Relevance The quantitative results indicate the workability of the proposed approach and confirm the dependence of projected demand for motor fuels for heavy vehicles both on the price range of possible-to-use fuels in the region and probability distribution of distinct values within the range. The proposed tools expand the analytical capabilities of currently used methods of predictive studies of the conditions (demand and prices) in regional energy markets and price elasticity of demand for fuel, and increase the validity of long-term projections for development of the fuel and energy complex of the country and regions.

Keywords: energy, demand, regional markets, fuel competitiveness, price elasticity, forecasting methods

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