Home  Journals  Regional Economics: Theory and Practice  36(411) - 2015 September

Research of the region's immunity in terms of Russia's WTO membership (the Sverdlovsk oblast case study)

Vol. 13, Iss. 36, SEPTEMBER 2015

Article PDF Version

Received: 11 March 2015

Accepted: 24 March 2015

Available online: 12 October 2015

Subject Heading: ECONOMIC-MATHEMATICAL MODELING

JEL Classification: 

Pages: 36-45

Importance The article deals with the issues of evaluation of immunity of the region in terms of the Russian Federation's membership in the WTO.
     Objectives The purpose of the article is to get a quantitative integrated evaluation of the level of immunity of the Sverdlovsk oblast to external factors, as well as to assess the sustainability of the oblast's economic system in the unstable economic situation.
     Methods We used a modified methodological apparatus to assess the sensitivity of the subjects of Russia to the effects of the WTO membership proposed by the Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
     Results We give our own interpretation of the notion of region's immunity, define its structure, and substantiate its components. As well, we highlight the indicators to quantify the level of immunity of subjects of the Russian Federation. We evaluate the degree of immunity of the region's economy to the potential negative effects of Russia's WTO membership. The results of the calculations are presented in the form of integrated quantitative estimation of the immunity of the Sverdlovsk oblast, and also as an immunogram in the context of individual indicators.
     Conclusions and Relevance We conclude that the use of the Solow-Swan model modification allow to predict the dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators for the Sverdlovsk oblast in the short term, as well as to evaluate the potential of the regions in achieving a sustainable proportional development within a certain time span. The results of the study have practical importance in terms of the impact of external factors that are destabilizing the region's economy.

Keywords: regional immunity, immunogram, economic growth, optimal control, economic growth modeling

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