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Regional Economics: Theory and Practice
 

Oil consumption in China, South Korea and Japan from the position of Russia's interests. Evaluation of structure, modeling and prediction

Vol. 13, Iss. 30, AUGUST 2015

PDF  Article PDF Version

Received: 14 February 2014

Accepted: 25 February 2014

Available online: 28 August 2015

Subject Heading: ECONOMIC SECURITY

JEL Classification: 

Pages: 25-45

Gulakova O.I. Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering of Siberian Branch of RAS, Akademgorodok, Novosibirsk, Russian Federation
olgulakova@yandex.ru

Importance The article considers the prospects for Russian oil exports to the East.
     Objectives The article's purpose is to define and analyze the main factors that generate demand for oil in South Korea, Japan and China, as well as to forecast oil consumption in these countries in the future.
     Methods To analyze the matter, I used econometric methods.
     Results I analyzed the oil consumption in South Korea, Japan and China, reviewed their oil markets. I identified the key factors shaping the demand for oil, economic factors influencing the oil consumption in the major Asian oil consumers, and analyzed statistical significant factors. I made hypothetical forecasts of the oil consumption in China, South Korea and Japan in 2030 and considered the aspects that favor the export interests of Russia.
     Conclusions and Relevance
I concluded that under the condition while oil remains one of the major sources of energy, China, Japan and South Korea can be assumed as stable strategic partners of Russia in the oil and oil products market.

Keywords: oil, consumption, China, Japan, South Korea, econometric analysis

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