Minaev V.A.Russian State University of Tourism and Service, Cherkizovo, Pushkinsky District, Moscow Region, Russian Federation m1va@yandex.ru
Platonova N.A.Russian State University of Tourism and Service, Cherkizovo, Pushkinsky District, Moscow Region, Russian Federation prorektor_nir@mail.ru
Importance The article deals with the problems of the tourist industry in the Russian Federation, the development of which is subject to planning and forecasting due to significantly increased crisis processes. Objectives We aimed to establish and test certain methods of forecasting and planning of the tourism industry's development in conditions of sudden changes in macroeconomic indicators. Our main tasks were the following: to analyze the underlying factors and risks that constrain the competitiveness growth in the market of tourist services; to predict the target indicators of tourism industry and plan the targets of the program of tourism development in the Central Federal District; to consider scenarios for the development of domestic and inbound tourism in the District, and provide a rationale for the best of them. Methods We used a mathematical apparatus of extrapolation forecasting to predict the program target indicators. On its basis, we applied normative-exploratory projection and target planning techniques. Results To ensure the sustained development of tourism in the Central Federal District, we have considered four scenarios: uniform-distributed, local-centered, cluster-distributed, and cross-regional tourist transportation-related routes (the development of infrastructure for tourist routes with the selection of the most significant and related facilities of tourism show). We prove that the maximum efficiency of the program activities in relation to the result-to-cost aspect may be achieved under the fourth scenario. Conclusions and Relevance We came to a conclusion that in the circumstances of the sanctions and their impact on the macroeconomic environment of the tourism industry development, the normative-exploratory projection technique is the best one to avoid the risk and errors of incorrect predictions and program indicators planning.
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