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Regional Economics: Theory and Practice
 

Analysis of risks and threats to economic security of the region

Vol. 13, Iss. 14, APRIL 2015

PDF  Article PDF Version

Available online: 6 April 2015

Subject Heading: ECONOMIC SECURITY

JEL Classification: 

Pages: 53-64

Dyuzhilova O.M. Tver State Technical University, Tver, Russian Federation
olga.dyuzhilova@mail.ru

Vyakina I.V. Tver State Technical University, Tver, Russian Federation
ivyakina@yahoo.com

Importance The article considers the economic security of the regions, ways of diagnosing and eliminating sources of danger for economic growth. We chose the Tver region as a case study for the consideration of assessment of economic security.
     Objectives The objective of the paper is to analyze the theory and methodology of assessment of economic security on the basis of the diagnosis of regional industry economic risks and identify the sources of risks and priorities of regional economic growth.
     Methods For the study, we used statistical probabilistic risk assessment methods based on the evaluation of the variation of yield of sectors of the regional economy.
     Results We analyzed data on the potential economic risks and explored different approaches to measuring and diagnosis of risk. We propose an approach, based on an assessment of the level of profitability and risk for branches of the regional economy to identify the source of danger and have an impact on it by the Government. We have also considered how to increase the level of security for the regional economy and create conditions for its further development due to the identified priorities and weaknesses. We grounded the system ensuring the economic security of the region, revealed the content of risks and threats. We assessed the reliability and stability of profitability of individual sectors of the region. In addition, we have identified the main priorities of economic development of the region, the "pain points", i.e. the industries, which may be a source of risk and destabilize the economic security of the region.
     Conclusions and Relevance The significance of the study is in organizing the economic activities in the Tver region that corresponds to the Russian average level of development by major indicators. The proposed tools can be useful to substantiate the economic security strategy at the regional level.

Keywords: economic security, economic risks, direct damage, indirect damage, risk analysis

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