Importance The nonlinear character of regional economic development, expressed by diverse macroeconomic indicators, determines its cyclicality, dynamics of structural changes and enterprise proportions. It involves the necessity to regularly research the structural dynamics with the purpose to stabilize the regional economic and social system and change over to an innovation economy model. Objectives The article covers an important issue of estimation and forecasting of qualitative shifts of the regional economy. The main task is to set up a list of criteria and exponents. Methods We are expounding our own practical problem-solving approach based on a structural-logical research method. The figured system of the exponents of valuation and forecasting of structural changes bases on an indicator system construction. The indicators reflect three aspects: the first aspect concerns the analysis of exponent systems, needed for estimation of region's innovative activity; the second one concerns the cyclicality estimation, which requires both qualitative and quantitative characteristics; the third aspect concerns the forecasting of structural changes in the long-term period. Such an approach to the determination of the suggested exponent list makes it possible to get reliable forecast. The actual data from the regional statistics department of the Novgorod region have confirmed the forecast. Results Using the selected indicators of the Novgorod region, we have analyzed and predicted structural changes of the reproduction economic sectors. This brought us to a conclusion that the management of structural changes in the region's economy is not effective enough. The structural changes throughout all the exponents, featuring the development of the region's economy, were multidirectional and of regressive nature. The main reason of such a situation is the deficient budgeting and internal investing. That will not allow ensuring the innovation breakthrough till 2030. Conclusions and Relevance We are submitting certain operational guidelines for an innovation scenario of the region's development. The guidelines can be used by the executive authorities for organizational policy improvement.
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