Importance The paper studies the topical issue of an input data uncertainty accounting in the long-term forecasting of energy resources demand. The long-term forecasts of the possible dynamics in energy demand are necessary and primary stage in developing of programs and strategies of energy development of the country's economy and the regions, and they also serve as an important benchmark for investment decisions in the fuel and energy complex. Objectives The complication of economy and the fuel and energy complex relationships, the change of management methods, transition to market economy, and the increasing role of the price factor lead to the growth of uncertainty of the future development of the countries and territories and, it also generates the implications of the demand for future energy resources. Methods In our study we describe the developed model and software equipment and the procedure for its application, which consists of a family of simulation stochastic and statistical models (SSSM) of larger groups of consumers for different regions of the country, which allows to assess the effects of ambiguity used in the long-term forecasting of information on perspective indicators of energy supply of a region. The specifics of complex models imply the joint usage of methods of optimization and statistical tests (the Monte Carlo method). The optimization method is used to select the rational structures of fuel supply to consumers. The statistical test (the Monte Carlo method) is used for accounting of uncertainty of future conditions. In addition, the particulars of approach allow setting the prospective technical and economic, pricing and other indicators in the form of intervals of possible values with various degree of probability of their implementation within these intervals. Results The article presents the results of experimental calculations for some of the larger regions of the Russian Federation in the anticipated conditions of fuel supply in 2020, and also considers the interval (complete) uncertainty of the source data. We discuss the normal distribution of probability within the interval of uncertainty and deterministic (unambiguous) values. We also demonstrate the impact of probability of the indicators implementation inside of the intervals at the change of the effective volumes of gas demand for new power plants and large boilers, and also at the uncertainty of the cost of electrical and thermal production. Conclusions and Relevance We point out that taking into account the factor of uncertainty of source information in determining the prognosis values of energy consumption must facilitate enhancing of the feasibility of long-term projections for the development of fuel and energy complex of the country and regions.
Keywords: region, regional power consumption, long-term forecasting, demand, price, uncertainty
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