The article studies the current state and main tendencies of the socio-economic development of the South Ural industrial centers. The paper reasons a correlation and regression analysis application in the research of territorial interconnected processes in aspect of stability that allows receiving the current and perspective estimates of territories' development. The paper illustrates that a use of the author's iterative algorithm to analyze regional industrial centers on the basis of criteria consecutive change is quite possible. The author concludes that the use of a system of indicators received from various databases helps to estimate the running processes in conditions of economic instability more objectively.
Keywords: stability, dynamics, correlation and regression analysis, interconnected processes, Soft Systems Methodology, open iterative algorithm, criteria consecutive change
References:
Artemova O.V., Logacheva N.M. Metodicheskie podkhody k otsenke urovnia razvitiia sotsial'noi infrastruktury regionov [Methodical approaches to an assessment of a development level of regions’ social infrastructure]. Regional’naia ekonomika: teoriia i praktika – Regional economics: theory and practice, 2011, no. 20, pp. 12–17.
Afanas’ev V.N. Statisticheskoe obespechenie problemy ustoichivosti sel’skokhoziaistvennogo proizvodstva [Statistical provision of the stability of agricultural production]. Moscow, Finansy i statistika Publ., 1996, 320 p.
Barkhatov V.I. Razvitie i ekonomicheskii rost regiona [Development and economic growth of a region]. Chelyabinsk, SUrSU Publ., 2004, 320 p.
Gordeev S.S. Biudzhetnye usloviia razvitiia industrial’nykh tsentrov Iuzhnogo Urala. Gorodov Cheliabinsk, Magnitogorsk, Ozersk, Kopeisk. Analiticheskii obzor [The budgetary conditions of development of the South Ural industrial centers. The cities of Chelyabinsk, Magnitogorsk, Ozersk, Kopeisk. State-of-the-art review]. Available at: Link. (In Russ.)
Gordeev S.S. Poisk sotsioekologo-ekonomicheskikh reshenii v informatsionnoi srede [Searching for socio-ecologic-economic decisions in the information environment]. Vestnik Cheliabinskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Ekonomika – Bulletin of Chelyabinsk State University. Economy, 2013, no. 8, pp. 47–52.
Granberg A.G. Osnovy regional’noi ekonomiki [Bases of regional economy]. Moscow, GU-VPSh Publ., 2001, 495 p.
Dukanova I.V. Sistema metodov otsenki urovnia sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiia raionnykh munitsipal’nykh obrazovanii [A system of methods for estimating a level of social and economic development of regional municipalities]. Regional’naia ekonomika: teoriia i praktika – Regional economics: theory and practice, 2011, no. 19, pp. 38–44.
Kaiaikina M.S. Statisticheskoe izuchenie kolebanii urozhainosti osnovnykh sel’skokhoziaistvennykh kul’tur v sovkhozakh Leningradskoi oblasti. Trudy LSKhI: Ispol’zovanie regressionnykh modelei v otsenke khoziaistvennoi deiatel’nosti sovkhozov [A statistical study of fluctuations of productivity of the main crops in the state farms of the Leningrad Region. Proceedings of the Leningrad Agrarian Institute: Use of regression models in assessing economic activities of the state farms]. Leningrad, LAI Publ., vol. 273, 1975, pp. 23–30.
Lebedeff-Donskoi M.M. Osobennosti analiza sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiia i obespecheniia ustoichivosti sovremennykh gorodov: na primere Iuzhnogo Urala. Mirovaia ekonomika i sovremennoe predprinimatel’stvo: tendentsii i praktika [Features of the analysis of socio-economic development and ensuring of stability of modern cities: a South Ural case study. The World economy and modern business: tendencies and practice. Vol. 3]. Moscow, Nauka Publ., 2012, pp. 155–178.
Mansurov P.M. Vliianie urovnia razvitiia sotsial’noi infrastruktury na demograficheskoe sostoianie v sel’skikh munitsipal’nykh obrazovaniiakh Ul’ianovskoi oblasti [Influence of a development level of a social infrastructure on the demographic situation in the rural municipalities of the Ulyanovsk region]. Regional’naia ekonomika: teoriia i praktika – Regional economics: theory and practice, 2012, no. 32, pp. 42–45.
Nogin V.D. Priniatie reshenii v mnogokriterial’noi srede: kolichestvennyi podkhod [A decision-making in multi-criteria environment: a quantitative approach]. Moscow, Fizmatlit Publ., 2002, p. 175.
Pavlov K.V. Iadro ekonomicheskikh sistem i effektivnaia khoziaistvennaia politika [The heart of economic systems and the effective economic policy]. Moscow, Magistr Publ., 2009, 191 p.
Rozanov G.V., Frenkel’ A.A. Problemy statisticheskogo modelirovaniia razvitiia otrasli [Problems of statistical modeling of the development of an industry branch]. Statisticheskii analiz ekonomicheskikh vremennykh riadov i prognozirovanie – Statistical analysis of economic temporary ranks and forecasting, Moscow, Nauka Publ., 1973, vol. 22–23, pp. 148–165.
Sedelev B.V. Uravneniia sviazi ekonomicheskikh protsessov rosta s obobshchennym zakonom raspredelennogo zapazdyvaniia i otsenka ikh parametrov [The equations of communication of economic processes of growth with the generalized law of the distributed delay and an assessment of their parameters]. Statisticheskii analiz ekonomicheskikh vremennykh riadov i prognozirovanie – Statistical analysis of economic temporary ranks and forecasting, Moscow, Nauka Publ., 1973, vol. 22–23, pp. 68–86.
Khisamutdinov I.A. Sotsio-ekologo-ekonomicheskaia otsenka regiona v kontekste perekhoda k ustoichivomu razvitiiu [A region socio-ecological-economic assessment in context of transition to sustainable development]. Regional’naia ekonomika: teoriia i praktika –Regional economics: theory and practice, 2013, no. 4, pp. 9–15.
Tinbergen J. An Econometric Approach to Business Cycle Problems. Paris, 1937, p. 74.
Peter Checkland, Jim Scholes. Soft Systems Methodology in Action. John Wiley and Sons, Ltd., USA, New Jersey, 2005, p. 418.
