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National Interests: Priorities and Security
 

Kondratiev cycles as a particular manifestation of fundamental evolutionary models

ISSUE 4, APRIL 2026

Received: 12 December 2025

Accepted: 24 December 2025

Available online: 29 April 2026

Subject Heading: INNOVATION AND INVESTMENT

JEL Classification: B23, C52, E32, O32, O47

Pages: 109-127

Ivan D. GRACHEV Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, RAS (CEMI RAS), Moscow, Russian Federation
idg19@mail.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1815-5898

Sergei N. LARIN Corresponding author, Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, RAS (CEMI RAS), Moscow, Russian Federation
sergey77707@rambler.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5296-5865

Nataliya V. NOAKK Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, RAS (CEMI RAS), Moscow, Russian Federation
n.noack@mail.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8696-5767

Subject. This article discusses the influence of knowledge generation, and two fundamentally different types of innovations on the dynamics of economic systems evolution.
Objectives. The study aims to substantiate the possibility of implementing the idea of "innovation-based economic growth" proposed by J. Mokyr using economic-mathematical models.
Methods. For the study, we used a methodological approach to construct economic-mathematical models of economic growth by analogy with the evolutionary development of biological populations, using the example of the СOVID-19 coronavirus, and the theory of Kondratiev long waves.
Results. The article reveals the effectiveness of a model with two fundamentally different innovation types regarding their impact on the dynamics of economic development processes. Expanding access to natural resources leads to the natural formation of Kondratiev cycles.
Conclusions. The evolutionary model allows explaining the automatic capital transfer from agents with below-average economic innovativeness to agents whose innovativeness is above the average.

Keywords: innovation types, Kondratiev cycles, economic growth

References:

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