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National Interests: Priorities and Security
 

Typology of risks in achieving the goals of national State policy in the Arctic

ISSUE 12, DECEMBER 2025

Received: 6 August 2025

Accepted: 8 September 2025

Available online: 16 December 2025

Subject Heading: THREATS AND SECURITY

JEL Classification: R11, R13, R58

Pages: 138-152

https://doi.org/10.24891/gzybng

Vera P. SAMARINA Corresponding author, Murmansk Branch of Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Murmansk, Russian Federation
samarina_vp@mail.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8901-5844

Aleksandr G. EFREMOV Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Moscow, Russian Federation
efremov-ag@ranepa.ru

ORCID id: not available

Tat'yana P. SKUF'INA Murmansk Branch of Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Murmansk, Russian Federation
skufina@gmail.com

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7382-3110

Sergei V. BARANOV Murmansk Branch of Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Murmansk, Russian Federation
bars.vl@gmail.com

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1960-6120

Subject. This article focuses on the risks to achieving the national state policy objectives in the Russian Arctic zone as a maximum national interest macro-region.
Objectives. The article aims to outline the main directions for minimizing the risks of achieving each goal of the State policy of the Russian Federation in the Arctic zone.
Methods. For the study, we used a fundamentally new strategic approach to identifying the activities risks of the Russian Arctic zone.
Results. The article identifies, substantiates, and typologizes the risks of achieving each of the five objectives of State Arctic policy.
Conclusions. The risks are often interconnected, which leads to increased uncertainty and reduces the ability to achieve the strategic goals of state policy. To minimize the risks, it is necessary to involve government authorities in collaboration with large corporations developing Arctic resources, as well as the scientific community.

Keywords: risk, typology, state Arctic policy, systemic risks, emerging risks, Russian Arctic zone

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